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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baystock who wrote (27322)	1/30/1999 1:07:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116762

< Do you think we should buy gold stocks now or wait for the first down leg in the stock market to be over with? Or did the first down leg already happen last fall? > Great Question. It is the age old question of whether one should try to time the market and buy at the bottom (and sell at the top) or just buy when there is great value present already. My record is not very good when it comes to buying at the bottom. Actually it stinks. The history of my long positions is that they tend to tank for 3 to 9 months before they rally strongly. But I'm a value player and a real contrarian on the long side. Short Selling, on the other hand, is my true vocation in the stock market; it is where I have made the vast majority of my profits. Ram, I've never been very good at understanding Bull Markets; and I certainly don't understand what is going on now: Momentum investing is for me like rolling the dice in Atlantic City or Las Vegas. I see the seeds being planted now in the present speculative blow off for a tremendous Grizzly Bear Market starting this Year. It can begin any day now; this Bull ( ? ) is living on borrowed time. The second half of 1999 will be quite terrifying. When the U.S. Stock Market begins to turn down again, the money will initially flow into Treasuries. I don't think Gold will move initially. I could be wrong here. I see value in the Gold mining sector now so I have been buying aggressively. I can handle the pain because I have a philosophical vision 6-12 months out. I don't want to miss out on the Greatest of Gold rallies to come, so I will not play market timer. I do see some short term pain ahead because I see the dollar temporarily rising strongly before it tanks well below the 108 yen level. Again, I can be wrong. That is why I'm buying now.