onxx vs. IMCL -- issues: based on facts, if u had cancer, which co's treatment would you choose to use??
A. Stage of Development - of furthest along product ie. AVAILABILITY criteria
onxx - head & neck cancer - still in phase II
imcl
- actually BEC2 drug for Lung Cancer in phase III.
- Head & neck cancer - awaiting phase III - only thing needed is approval on the protocol - clinical test portion APPROVED ALREADY by FDA
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B. Efficacy - extent of how well treatment works (both co's work better than chemo, no probs there)
onxx
- 62% had greater than 50% regression. Included in that, 23% had complete regression
- 4% GOT WORSE ie. it didn't work - and that occured on persons with a SINGLE tumour
imcl
- 100% had greater then 50% regression. Included in that, 88% had complete regression
- zero, nada, nil got worse
Based on availability and efficacy, if you had cancer, which drug would you want administered?
C. Rate of regression ie. how fast tumours diminish
onxx - does not say, but mentions 1.5 months, uncertain
imcl - within 30 days, tumours are gone/unnoticeable ! I can only imagine, from my aunt who passed away in the early 1980s, and who won beauty pageants in the 1950s, how good it would feel to not have any visible tumours. If you attend an IMCL presentation, you will see before/after pictures - these will not be made available to the public without a presentation.
D. Ownership, Partners, Financial Mgmt, Insider activity
- Mgmt owns over 10% of the stock. -
- Merck Gmbh providing initial financing, milestone payments (in form of purchase of stock up to 20% of shares, at premium to then current market price). $90 million on financing in total. One of toughest things biotech co's face is financing - IMCL has it.
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With a burn rate of 1.5m/month, IMCL has funds to last about 48 months (4 years)!
- Insider activity recently: late Nov, Chairman exercises 10,000 options @ ~$8 incurring tax liab in 1998; in Dec, a Director exercises 7,400 shrs ~$8.75 to 9, again incurring a tax liability in 1998. One Director bot at 10 3/8 -1/2 ! On Jan 26, 1999, 5,000 shares bot by a Director -> at $10 + !!
E. Biotech Stock Price Movement - statistically shown, and quoted in biz/newsweek in Dec. section on biotechs, that:
50% of longer term biotech stock price run up occurs during the period from approval to enter phase III until time of marketing approval. IMCL awaiting approval to enter phase III - medical/testing part done, just waiting for the ok on the protocol / business plan, if you will. IMCL's own press release says to happen in 99Q1
Some will take the pop on attainment approval of Phase III, but they will miss a significant rise if they don't get back in. Look at IDPH
F. Company PR (public relations)
The company likes to make announcements having significant meaning to their operations. They have not, certainly in the recent past, put out press releases about speaking at industry wide & analyst conferences. I am speaking to the company about this aspect.
For example, IMCL presented at the Hambrecht & Quist health care conference in mid January. Over 250 companies were there over 4 days. I believe that not all companies presented, further distinguishing IMCL. IMCL is the leader in its area!
On February 11-13, IMCL will present at the Cruttenden Roth 11th annual Growth Conference. phone 800-678-9147. This conference is for institutional investors.
IMCL's tight lips I liken to PMC Sierra (PMCS) which H&Q bot in my acct there in the mid 40s. Later the stock dropped to 35, on a BT Alex Brown (I think) analyst who said PMCS wasn't doing any good. PMCS, in their tight lipped fashion, did not comment. Stock sunk to 29/28. My H&Q guy told me not to worry. Well, PMCS has gone over $70! Another situation, on GMSTF, they bot for me at $46. Stock sank to low $30's. I was pissed! Climbed back to high 30's, then buyout offer for $45. Stock opened at $46 and I called saying “take it” (ie. sell it, I want to break even). H&Q told me offer crap and they were holding - stock went into high 60s! now in 50s. SO, on IMCL, I am happy with their tight lips !
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