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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3096)	1/30/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

AMAT addendum: AMAT bottomed in 1996 at a $11 1/4 close on July 24, 1996 when the Garz went bearish and we had a nice correction. So from that point on until January 29, 1997 it gained approximately 100% from the bottom to a close of $22.9375. In this cycle, it closed at a bottom of $22 3/8 on October 8, 1998 and it closed yesterday at $63 3/16 for a 183% gain in a shorter number of days. Of course, the correction in 1998 was more dramatic than the correction of 1996. But 83% more gain in fewer days? That's the problem with these stocks. We can't determine how much of the gain is real industry improvement and how much is market fluff from big mo and friends. And that is why I consider them far more risky now than in 1997. Look at the 10 day put/call then on that graph. In 1997 at this time, it was meandering around .70 to .80. Today it is off the chart at .49.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3096)	2/1/1999 11:17:00 PM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, re:"...Went short AMAT and TER at the close on Friday for a trade in a play to take advantage of the upgrade game. She went from "buy" to "stong buy." What a joke. . . . " I went short AMAT on Friday as well. Saw it as an easy few bucks, but also, not having shorted anything in over a year, wanted to test my psychological reaction to being short. Only dealing with well under 1% of my portfolio, still, I found over the weekend that I had exceeded my comfort level. Covered today, with a loss of one point. Cheap lesson that may help me avert disaster later. I learned that, even when there may be a rational basis for being short, there's a good chance I won't be able to execute a rational exit strategy. This despite the fact that, when on the long side, my risk tolerance is much, much greater. Go figure. . . guess that's why my room has padded walls. Still short? Gary