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Non-Tech : PERFUMANIA.COM . . PRFM . . .FOR LONGS ONLY -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: melinda abplanalp who wrote (1070)	1/30/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: Archie Goodwin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2489

From Yahoo FWIW....... Moneyflow went out big time in accord with a realtively small decrease in closing price. There was obviously some (voluntary and involuntary) profit taking. I am not sure if MM's really took on a large position into inventory for Monday. On Friday, about 1,000,000 were sold between 13:15 and 15:40 while the price dropped from 13 1/2 to 10 1/2. In the last 30 minutes including overtime 250,000 shares traded while price recovered from 10 1/2 to 11. I think that, in terms of shares, for every 3 profit takers there was only 1 shorter. Short selling , IMO, was confined to a few non-professional shorts, who incidentally did not make a whole lot despite of what some claim on this board. (Claiming ficticious winnings serves both as denial of failure as well as an intimidation tactic). Profesional shorts will start selling from a much higher position to maximize their return and minimize their risk. The "shorts" posting here are really just a bunch of fools. By candlestick analysis, this looks like a regular profit taking correction after a gap-up and spike from the previous day. Stochastics are not in the >80% zone yet, so the upside is still there. My previous estimates that the spike will be 2.5-3x Friday's close which would be $27-33. All people combined posting here or on all other PRFM boards cannot make this happen by themselves. It takes a whole new layer of investors recruited through media attention on Monday and Tuesday to generate that kind of Volume. We're talking about at least 5,000,000 trading volume. With cNBC coverage this could happen. I think if we get 1,000,000 shares in the first 30 minutes with an uptick.... that would be the kind of volume that could launch a big spike. You can't blame people for profit taking especially if they bought at 5 or below. My guess is that a lot of current longs have a higher base than that and will sit on their shares until it hits >30 with some profit taking at 20 and 25 (if it gets there of course). Company fundamentals are obviously the most important (or are they anymore?) criterion of stock price performance. All I know is that men will underestimate the market view of a "women's" stock like PRFM. Women will be the predominant internet shopping power in the not too distant future. I think most women would agree that, if could buy a tried and tested cosmetic on-line at a huge discount, they would do that any day. Can Perfumania afford to sell like that and still make money? It is the high volume small margin (AMZN/BAMM/ONSL/EGGS/MZON) versus low volume high margin business model (AOL/SCH/AMTD/ELNK). Only Microsoft has the cake and eats it too (high volume/high margin). That's why it's nice to have a monopoly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have been in and out of this a few times and currently have a small position at $12. Regards A.G.