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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Red Scouser who wrote (46295)	1/30/1999 5:43:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Neil: I intend to be around CPQ for a long time. My big question is whether to buy first thing on Monday or wait until it reaches $45 or lower - if it does. These are the terms of the dialectic going on in me 'ead. It is possible that very strong analysts recommendations could boost it 2-3 points for a couple of days, but that it won't hold the gains and it will drift back to $47-45 or lower. I'm not sure that there are going to be very strong recommendations - so far we have seen reiterations and one downgrade. I think that analysts may be worried about the appropriate valuation for now - although they will all expect it to achieve $55-100 later this year. Without recommendations it may bob about and may be vulnerable to downdraughts. I would buy on a dip. And sell on a spike. The other theory is that all the weak hands and punters have already been washed out, the price has twice bounced strongly off $46 5/8ths and is maintaining $47+ and is preparing for a surge. My problem with this theory is that I am not sure why buyers would move in at the moment. 43 cents was enough reason to to move it to $53-55, but the questions raised by the tax issue and the lingering lack of confidence in the figures - or their lack of transparency - may have weakened enthusiasm when it got to $51 intraday. A positive AV announcement might give it a 2-3 point boost, but I don't think that would be sustained either. It is possible that it is going to need to back and fill for a bit, until DELL's earnings are out of the way, more market reports are in, and this quarter's earnings are in sight. I feel reasonably confident that it will touch $60 at or before next earnings, so unless one is greedy like me, it may be better to just sit back and relax. NOTE: My prediction in September or October, or whenever it was, was $50 on 21st February, 1999. I may have said "at least on an intraday basis". I know it has touched $50 and $51 intraday but has never closed at $50. Maybe my prediction is going to be literally correct and I will be able to start a newsletter and retire to California. Only about three weeks to go. +++++++++OT++++++++++ The supporters booed Macca when he came on. We really do have a weak defence until all the new guys are put in. We also need a creative forward or wing back. We'll NEVEEEEEEEER WAAAAAALK ALOOOOOONE!