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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip Anderson who wrote (10413)	2/1/1999 2:56:00 AM
From: Waldeen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Chip, all, sorry but sent 'mental' stops and exited: selling all but a measly 200 shares tdfx... exited with profits on stbi too.. moving out as soon as it touched 8. If I had been logical, would have sold before earnings but these were shares I intended as 'long'. Of course intentions don't change investment strategies: once I set a stop, that's that. Got to say that I have now turned slightly bearish, and can't see re-entering here without substantial upward movement/momentum, announced OEM deals, or a more attractive entry position. The following bothers me here: I along with others vehemently objected to Banshee coming out without a 2nd TMU, and not clearly being a Voodoo2 killer. Not to mention the late release of the product, which clearly should have been out earlier. Voodoo3 now, is just making Banshee look more and more stillborn, to me. I don't see future OEM wins with Banshee as the vendors may well wait for Voodoo3. Consequently, the acquisition of STBI at this time looks to give a seriously back-end quarter, since they have to get the merger up and in place before getting V3 established. Reinforced by no V3 OEM deals being announced at the CC. I also question Creative fully pursuing the Gateway Banshee product beyond inventory in hand. A logical transition to Gateway of V3 now appears much more difficult or at least uncertain without guidance. This looks like two mistakes compounded: if Banshee had been released earlier, and been released in V3 form, tdfx would have had a carry-over product established to protect profit margins during transition. Creative could have continued to supply V3 to Gateway as existing product; tdfx would have no difficulty in continuing supply during merger of existing product. Now it appears uncertain as to whether V3 can ramp up as fast as V2 and/or Banshee fall off. Also, lack of 32 bit color in V3 is another issue showing the age of the architecture... which would not have been an issue if the product was released earlier and already established at this time. I'm also a little miffed by the lack of STBI information given in the CC. Understanding the limitations of the merger quiet period, it still is impossible to view the future of the company long term without knowing complete details. Again, additional uncertainity in the short term if not for the long term. Factor in that the odds of us hearing of TNT2 news of Permedia3 release in this quarter complicates the potential strength of V3 as a retail product IMO. Again, I had previously been concerned that tdfx not lose sight of the retail niche they established, as others on this board. My previous position was to buy STBI shares and hold until earnings and then re-evaluate. Which, I have now done. Going forward, I'd like to see more complete product roadmaps released after the merger completes. But, again this has not been a strong suit of this company and will just have to wait and see. I like the management of this company, but this quarter currently looks too uncertain for me. Waldeen "ISB resignation officially submitted"