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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Couch who wrote (21370)	1/30/1999 8:01:00 PM
From: bill c.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Jay, It's sounds like you understand the history around the CAP vs DMT technology. USWest deployed CAP for a number of factors: 1) Understanding of it's behavior in the local loop, 2) Power requirements, 3) Port Density,. 4) etc The DMT technology has been around for a number of years. Cisco or any vendor can market a DMT modem, but providing the technology with the require port density and NEBS compliance is another story. MOT has been marketing their DMT chip for 2 years, but we don't see any deployments with that chip. They promised the chip in Jan97, but here the industry waits. Alcatel has won access to ~70-80% of the lines in the US. Alcatel has BellSouth, SBC, PacTel, BEL/NYNEX {4 year contract} and Ameritech. They leaves only USWest which is using Cisco. USWest will have an RFP for a DMT DSLAM, and Cisco is going to have to compete against Alcatel. Alcatel will low ball the price and the winner will lose money on the front end of the contract. Since Alcatel is manufacturing the major components "DMT chip set" they can beat anyone on price. A good example of this was the Bell Canada contract. Westell/Nortel where partners for this contract and they lost to Alcatel. BC owns Nortel, but they still selected Alcatel. Alcatel is losing money on that contract. I agree that USWest wasn't going to wait for those DMT chip vendors, they deployed a CAP based technology. Who is deploying the Cisco DMT solution? One needs to separate out the Marketing hype from the real numbers. So how does one compete against an Alcatel, when they are willing to lose money to gain market share in North America? How can one beat them, one way is functionality. How is the Netspeed "off hook" technology working? Another way to compete is to have an installed base of hardware to convert. This is where Lucent/Ascend have an advantage. Lucent has ~20 million SLC-5/SLC-2000 lines and 100,000 million 5ESS lines that can be converted. Ascend is the #1 remote access vendor, they will convert those TNT vendors. Would you know what Cisco is doing to support USWest and their Digital Loop Carriers? I hear that 50% of the new lines installed are on DLC's. For anyone to claim that Cisco is the leader in DSL, well, I think they are incorrect. Maybe I missed a few of the Cisco deployments. I count USWest and Sprint. Sprint is a long distance carrier with limited local access. Can someone fill me in on those other Cisco DSL deployments?