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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (36338)1/30/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: Mark Adams  Respond to of 95453
 
Sometimes large short positions are 1/2 of a convertable bond/preferred stock position. If FGI has long term debt of these forms, then the short position may have gotten it's start as 145a investors locked in low risk yields by selling common against the convertable debt.

I know with some effort I could determine if this might be the case with FGI. One place to look are the SEC filings, and historical short data if available.

My off the cuff guess is FGI is engaged in a capital intensive business and did issue some form of convertable debt. If that accounts for the bulk of the short shares, then the short position may be neither bullish or bearish.



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (36338)1/30/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: thomas hayden  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
FGI - It certainly appears that there are quite a few people on this thread that are long FGI, perhaps too many. Who will be left to buy..

You may be correct that this is a non traditional short. It certainly doesn't make any sense that someone would remain short at ten. Potential profit being short at ten is maybe 5 points verse a loss of 20 on up. That is what makes this holding very nervous for me. Someone has alot bet and the odds don't *appear* to be in their favor. So I just wonder what horrible news could be swirling around. Last week until this stock reached 10, the sellers greatly outnumbered the buyers. Sometimes the offering would be 5 times(or more) greater than the bid. It makes be wonder. But most certainly from watching FGI trade last week the sellers have not dried up and are still (IMO) waiting for a rally so they can hit it again. I base that just on the size of the offerings last week.

One thing that does help me rest a little easier is if there is some negative news out there, we may open down a couple of points but the short coverers would bring it right back up. In this case it would be sell the rumor, buy the fact.




To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (36338)1/31/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: Mike from La.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider,
Your analysis makes sense. I was only looking at the more recent history, like the last 3-4 weeks. Throw in the additional history that you looked at, and the mystery increases. It's still hard to understand why a company with solid earnings would be beat down so much.

Mike from La.