To: nokomis who wrote (1088 ) 1/31/1999 9:59:00 PM From: telecomguy Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2453
This is not a "disaster" as some of the Short Term investors are making it out to be. Any investors with some understanding of how companies are "built" would see these numbers as a blessing in disguise. Think about it --- big chunk of YF's franchising markets are down in the dumps right now, butterfat price skyrocketed (note the past tense as it has come down substantially), and YF just did a huge merger with Integrated Brands which was a real seminal event in YF's maturity as a company as it evolves/transforms itself into a REAL product/distribution based company in the Frozen Dessert vertical market. With as many internal challenges they've had to deal with and the uncontrollable negatives that have hit them (Asia, South America meltdown, butterfat prices) out of nowwhere, I AM VERY HAPPY THAT THEY MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE, BUILD-UP REVENUE, BUILD-UP CASH, and MAKE PROFIT. This is a bigger, more stable company with a lot stronger balance sheet - and perhaps more importantly, lot stronger product mix & distribution channel. In other words, they are no longer a One Trick pony with 100% of their revenue/profti dependent on the ever volatile franchising business (I would like to have seen their financial performance had they NOT done the acquisitions in the past few years - I think it would truely have been disastrous). These little blips are NOTHING. The real issue has always been and will always be based on Management (and I grant that if in fact there is some dissension in the executive ranks, I am concerned ... as politics and infighting is a cancer in any company). I have not seen any evidence that YF Management is incompetent or dishonest. They appear to me to be working very hard to build and grow their company into a mid-sized company ($500 Million US and up) with a very interesting international distribution potential. I have a lot of disdain for posters like Ward Nicholson who post 2 line messages with very little content but lot of negative hype and useless invectives. Like I said in my previous posts, I don't really care if the stock price goes down by 10% or even 20% in a day... what is more important is why they are going down and what kind of volumes are driving it. To me this downturn is the retail guys dumping - mostly because they went into the stock with unrealistic expectations. As long as they are building revenue, distribution channel, developing good products, and maintaining their aggressive growth strategy ----- I AM A ONE HAPPY LONG-TERM INVESTOR who hopefully will walk with a million dollar profit within the next 5 years. As a last comment, take a look at their revenue growth from Q1 of 1997 versus Q1 of 1998. We are talking about a revenue growth in excess of 100%! And they are profitable. If an internet company was growing 100% a year in revenue, had $40 million in unencumbered cash, and MADE profit, their stock valuation will be STRATOSPHERIC (say around 3000 times earnings as a rough guess?). So when I see a earnings multiple of 10 for YF because their profit went down from 1.3 million to 300K in the first Quarter, this is laughable. At this juncture of YF, the real important number to look at is the TOP LINE - not their bottom line!!! I mean who cares if they made 1 million less in the first quarter (depite all the external negatives). The Revenue is the key driver until YF hits at least $500 Million and until then, the short-term traders and the Retail traders are totally looking at the wrong figures in the P&L. I AM HAPPY WITH THIS Q1 RESULT AND EXPECT GOOD THINGS IN 1999!