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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (36346)	1/31/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Rob: The fascinating thjing about the oil bus is that a modest surplus can send prices plunging, but a modest shortfall can send them soaring. I have seen credible estimates that a 1.5 million bpd (2%) cut in supply would bring the oil price back to $15 in a matter of months. Another 2-3% reduction probably would bring us back to $18. So the bottom line is that a 4-5% cut in production could boost the price by 40-50% in a matter of months. That is why oil prices will rebound much faster than many think when production starts to erode in a serious way.