Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)	1/31/1999 4:21:00 AM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Respond to of 27311

Jay - Thanks for posting the worksheet. You have assumed lower margins but kept market share constant. Under this scenario, the stock price seems to fall off after a few years, as if a stock price goes through a maximum, which is unusual. This can not be VLNC's biz plan. Competition and substitution for Li Poly may shrink the margin. However, the mgmt will strive to improve earnings growth like all those thousands of businesses that have grown earnings in the past. The question is how? Ram

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)	1/31/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 27311

Jay: Thanks for the data spreadsheet. Interesting to contemplate but until we start hearing about p.o.'s......welll.....it's about as accurate as all the rest of the speculative commentary going on here. I've just waded through a lot of posts and the conclusion I've reached is that everyone's pretty much in the same boat I'm in, and that's the one where we wait until VLNC corporate opens their mouths. Until then the dearth of information is filled with speculations. So it goes, eh? As for me.....P.O's., P.O.'s, P.O.'s!! All else has been discussed, chewed over, with scads of irrelevant dissing going on by some. P.O.'s. This is what I want to seeeeeeeee!!!!!! (Hey, does that make me impatient?? Heh). John~

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)	1/31/1999 1:16:00 PM
From: hcirteg	Respond to of 27311

Thanks Jay- Nice work....i'll take ANY of those first 5 years returns!!! From your computer to the VLNC GODS. Thanks again. HC

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)	1/31/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Respond to of 27311

I see I goofed in reversing the Margin and Market Share line for the laptop case. No effect to the bottom line - I cleaned it up. I added lines for Total and VLNC revenue by category and a final line which is VLNC Share Price as 4x Revenues. Voila! Comes out the same as the PE calculation. The issues I see are: 1. What will the real LiPoly adoption rate be? 2. What are the real margins? 3. What market share can VLNC obtain? 4. The adoption rate and market share I have chosen pull 16M batts out of VLNC in first 12 month cycle after first PO's. Do they have this capacity? 5. In the second cycle (named year 2000), the LiP adoption rate jumps from 20% to 60% (reasonable?). This pulls 58M batts from VLNC. Possible? Precious little is verifiably known and possibilities abound both good and bad. Updated spreadsheet at ftp://ftp.halcyon.com/pub/users/jaylowe/vlnc.xls

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)	1/31/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Valence Opt Case %LiP in 2000 60% VLNC Max Market Share 33% Laptops Section 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Laptops (M) 12 15 19 23 29 37 46 57 % employing LiP 20% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% LiP Laptops (M) 3 11 14 15 15 14 6 LiP Add-on Packs (M) 2 6 7 7 7 7 3 Laptop LiP Batts (M) 5 63 99 107 107 94 16 Laptop Batt Price $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 Margin 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Laptop Batt Unit Profit $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 Laptop LiP Revenue (M$) $ 338 $4,746 $7,416 $8,047 $8,047 $7,072 $1,228 Laptop Profit (M$) $ 68 $ 949 $1,483 $1,609 $1,609 $1,414 $ 246 VLNC Market Share 33% 25% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% VLNC Laptop Revenue (M$) $ 111 $1,187 $1,483 $1,448 $1,287 $ 990 $ 147 VLNC Profit (M$) $ 22 $ 237 $ 297 $ 290 $ 257 $ 198 $ 29 Phone/PDA Section 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Phone/PDAs (M) 120 150 188 234 293 366 458 572 % employing LiP 20% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% LiP Devices (M) 30 113 141 146 146 137 57 LiP Add-on Packs (M) 15 56 70 73 73 69 29 Phone LiP Batts (M) 45 169 211 220 220 206 86 Phone Batt Price $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 Margin 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Phone Batt Profit $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 Phone LiP Revenue (M$) $ 675 $2,531 $3,164 $3,296 $3,296 $3,090 $1,287 Phone Profit (M$) $ 135 $ 506 $ 633 $ 659 $ 659 $ 618 $ 257 VLNC Market Share 33% 25% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% VLNC Phone Revenue (M$) $ 223 $ 633 $ 633 $ 593 $ 527 $ 433 $ 154 VLNC Profit (M$) $ 45 $ 127 $ 127 $ 119 $ 105 $ 87 $ 31 Totals Section Total VLNC Batts (M) 16 58 62 59 52 42 12 Total VLNC Revenue $ 334 $1,819 $2,116 $2,042 $1,815 $1,423 $ 302 Total VLNC Profit $67 $364 $423 $408 $363 $285 $60 VLNC Shares (M) 40 50 60 60 60 60 60 VLNC Profit/Share $1.67 $7.28 $7.05 $6.81 $6.05 $4.74 $1.01 VLNC Share Price @ PE 20 $33 $146 $141 $136 $121 $95 $20 VLNC Price @ RevMultiple 4 $ 33 $ 146 $ 141 $ 136 $ 121 $ 95 $ 20