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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (7038)	1/31/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

I think it was July (G) For those wishing to short a trend. INTV has a long way to go down. Target... 5 Note that no news is driving this plunge (but the rumor is that they will miss earnings) I think it is just the initial liquidation of the more speculative issues (like the internuts) that comes before a MAJOR mkt selloff, and people are just scrambling to come up w/ a reason for the selloff. The chart is very close to giving a sell signal on the monthly chart, and volume has not picked up during its crash showing that there are LOTS of idiots left that haven't sold: 207.95.154.130 cboe.pcquote.com Then take a look at the put/call. Calls were being bought hand over fist (406) on Fri while only a few puts were traded and it appears that they traded at the bid showing that someone likely closed out an open position or sold them naked (59 puts spread over 2 strikes). This is a contrarian's DREAM!! THIS IS EXTREMELY BEARISH!!! Short this POS. Also, note the breakdown in FTU last week. While it was news related due to lower than expected earnings. I think you will see very similar charts to FTU and INTV all over the mkt VERY soon. It will be VERY UGLY. What we want to look for in the intial stages of the decline is bullish sentiment such as w/ INTV. where the players continue to buy calls on the way down and psychology is bullish because they don't realize what is happening. I come up w/ a very timely and dire scenario. Consider the following: we begin to sell off on Mon for whatever reason. The UTIL began to sell off on Fri, watch for this to get worse! Fed keeps rates unchanged and we sell off more (media blames the selloff on disappointment of investors due to the lack of interest rates cuts and maybe some other rumor?) We sell off all week and get a big one on Fri. Press is very bullish over the weekend (maybe even a bull on a rag cover?) They point to the strong GDP numbers, and say who cares if we don't get a rate cut we can go higher w/out it!(because they wrongly think this is the reason we are selling off) and besides Easy Al said stocks were fairly valued even when we were higher a week ago. Be bullish on stocks! etc (you get the idea)..... then Mon and Tues... WE CRASH! the sentiment is right, the charts look right..... we're setting up for something VERY BAD. -Lucretius