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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (23145)	1/31/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: Michael Rich	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Jer, make your mind now...a flying bull or a winning bet? Super Bowl win by the Falcons a sign Dow will fly By Jennifer Shaw NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Stocks will fly like an eagle if the Atlanta Falcons win the Super Bowl this Sunday. But if the Denver Broncos repeat as champs, the bad news bears will return. So goes the wisdom of the NFL Super Bowl stock indicator, which says that if a team from the league's National Football Conference defeats its American Football Conference counterpart in the big game, a bull market is in store for the stocks. Sounds silly? In the past 32 years the indicator has been correct 28 times and wrong on only four occasions, posting a success rate of 88 percent. The Super Bowl stock indicator made incorrect calls in 1998, 1990, 1978 and 1970. These statistics include the early years of Super Bowl play, in which the old National Football League champs played the best team in the old American Football League. The two leagues eventually were merged into an all-inclusive NFL. ''If you believe in the Super Bowl theory you want the Falcons,'' said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor's Industry Reports. Stovall is the son of Robert Stovall, the president of Stovall/Twenty First Advisors, who made the theory famous back in the late 1960s. ''The Super Bowl theory is what you call the result of data mining,'' explained the younger Stovall. ''That means you find something that has no influence on the market but has a high correlation to the market.'' And despite the disparagement of some Wall Street pundits, Stovall says he sees a lot of value in the index. And not just because of its high success rate. ''Why would football scores have anything to do with the stock market? It really doesn't mean anything at all but it is humorous. And sometimes Wall Street gets too impressed with itself, it needs a little levity to give it some humor.''