Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: betty moyers who wrote (18441)	1/31/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

betty, Nice post. The problem is that it seems like Vivus stock has a history of the nay sayers always looking for anything negative to harp on. I've seen companies with less difficult situations take years to turn around. Vivus appears to have cleaned house in less than 6 short months. If you recall there was a question during the cc where the analyst from Daine Rauscher Wessels asked about company guidance concerning future revenues. Wilson said that the company could not give any guidance. How can they if they don't know exactly what the launch dates will be for the various European countries? It is possible that they can all be licensed and launched within 2 months or it may take as long as 5 months. Vivus doesn't know because it isn't there decision. How can they know if they do not know if they will sign a partner next week or in 2 months. These 2 factors, European launches and a domestic partner are both things that can't be accurately predicted. I do think however that we can conservatively say that by mid year MUSE will be fully launched in Europe and will be relaunched in the United States by our new domestic partner while Viagra will continue to gain negative publicity. I believe that Wilson is trying to cover his ass by painting a picture that things will be difficult in the first half of 1999 when things most likely will all be wrapped up by the end of this quarter. In essence he is giving himself an extra 3 months leeway in case he continues his bad habit of screwing things up. I have been told that the class action lawsuit has made this company extremely paranoid about ever speaking optimisticly again concerning future prospects of the company and Vivus will continue to be overly conservative regarding any future forecasts. Do you know exactly what the story is on the $16M of raw materials which was placed into dep freeze and written off in Q3 1998? It appears to me that based on Q4's cost of goods data, that Vivus was not taking anything out of deep freeze and crediting it towards cost of goods last Q. My gut feeling is that they are sitting on a ton of raw materials and will be using it on the books in both Q1 and perhaps Q2 to continue to show profitability. Seems to me like even if product revenue is poor in Q1 and Q2 because of launches not materializing, that Vivus can show profits based on milestones and using raw materials which were written off in Q3 1998. My sources tell me that contrary to what Wilson stated that even without the milestones, Vivus should be able to break even in Q1. If this is true, Vivus should show a 13 cent profit in Q1 if they are able to achieve licensing in 2 out of 4 of the EU countries.

To: betty moyers who wrote (18441)	2/1/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Mkilloran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Betty....the numbers comparing the 3rd and 4th qtrs results look great. We were all expecting Europe to kick in asap...now we are in a holding waiting to see how much will start in the 1st and the 2nd qtr 1999. I'am more interested to see if Astra and Janssen can replicate their progress in Sweden, UK and Canada to the other 20 countries that are already approved. A USA partner and some progress on Japan should be behind us in a few months as well. The good news is that the bottom fishers are starting to take notice of what's going on with Vivus.....it's just takes time. #reply-7588395