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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (20830)	1/31/1999 6:47:00 PM
From: Nevin S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, if I may let me offer some support. Your projection of future sales revenue based capacity and ASP's is accurate given industry numbers today. It appears however, that ASP's may rise over the near term as CYMI refines its product offering and makes technological advances. Laser ASP's may push up to $600 K or even $700 K suggesting that within a few years, at full capacity CYMI might hit $700 MM in sales. Even using that number, I'm skeptical that CYMI shares will hit $100. Now for the other side of the story (fantasy): Who knows what the future will hold. We're talking about a major shift in how chips will be manufactured. Right now we are seeing demand for lasers coming from manufacturers that are looking for design-rule shrink for critical layers but little in the way of overall capacity expansion. If during this next upturn in the semi conductor business cycle we see an almost total shift to .18 micron, and, capacity expansion, who knows, maybe CYMI will have to start allocating production and expand their own manufacturing capacity. Of course, along the way I'm sure we will see some speed bumps as Lambda Physic and Komatsu lasers are qualified and used in some stepper/scanner models. There's no kidding ourselves, in such a lucrative market there will be contenders. Most likely this will occur on the trailing edge of the technology and CYMI will lose sales to competitors for $500 K lasers not the $700 K models, but this will make it more difficult for CYMI to max out their own production capacity, or at least for a sustained period of time. Long on CYMI and hoping for a little irrational exuberance to push this stock to $100/shr (?).