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To: jwk who wrote (27297)	1/31/1999 8:34:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

From Ed Yardeni, Ph.D., economist, Deutsche Bank Securities at : yardeni.com REPORT FROM DAVOS I arrived at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Friday night. I spent the next day attending various panels. Saturday night I was at a cocktail party hosted by Bankers Trust. I was discussing the Year 2000 Problem (Y2K) with the CEO of one of the largest accounting firms in the world. He believes it is a big problem and that most CEOs are too complacent about it. In the middle of our conversation, the lights went out in all of Davos for about 15 minutes. The waiters quickly lit candles in the room. Later that evening, I ran into a top US Treasury official who told me that he thought my Y2K recession forecast was crazy, but he graciously added that he had thought my Dow 5000 by '95 and Dow 10000 by 2000 were crazy too. Sunday morning I presented a "Call for Y2K Leadership" to an informal gathering of ministers attending the conference. Just before I spoke, Bill Gates talked very briefly about the unprecedented rate of change in his business. He commented on the Internet mania in the stock market: "Even people involved can't believe valuations." After my short pitch for more leadership, the CEO of one of Mr. Gate's challengers said that everyone should buy a computer before yearend because his company might not get the components needed to build PCs from Asian suppliers who are "1-3 years behind" in getting ready for Y2K! On the way to a luncheon, a key Japanese official told me that his government was just starting to think about Y2K contingency plans and was unsure what to do.