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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (20834)	1/31/1999 11:43:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

>>Again, as a seasoned web surfer, perhaps some of us believed you to be among the most resilient. (I still do.)<< Even rubber bands have limits. >>For those, and even for your contrary opinions on CYMI, thank you. It's far too easy to fall into the trap of believing the current trend will continue forever. Your voice will be much needed going forward.<< As I've said before, either here or elsewhere, I mostly watch the technology, not the stock. My experience in technology watching has been that it's very dangerous for a company to rest on its laurels, and very dangerous for investors to assume a lasting monopoly. To use another example from the DUV world, SVG currently has 75% of the world's installed base of 248nm DUV scanners. The president of the company does not expect to maintain that share, because the market is too big for his competitors to ignore. He's expecting 25-30%, and will be quite happy with that going forward. The DUV laser market is also too big for CYMI's competitors to ignore, especially since CYMI's customers are going to be actively encouraging some of those competitors. I'm not saying that CYMI is going to collapse, by any means. Still, I'll be very surprised if that 98% market share holds as 248 nm ramps up, and shocked if CYMI is able to get that large a share of the 193 nm market, too. Katherine