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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (20860)	2/1/1999 10:37:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 25960

Clark, no problems with criticizing the rationale. I read assumptions from Curly that he expect within four years to see sales of $1.5 billions three years. And these are the numbers I am arguing with. I do not think the chips companies are going to very soon go back to spending 30% of sales on new equipment and fabs as they have in the hey day of overcapacity building, they are going to retreat to a level of 10 to 15% or so, IMHO, and this implies total semi equip annually in this time frame od between $20 to $30 billion per year, and I do not see the light source itself capturing 5% to 7.5% of this total market, since that will put the lithography market at 10 times as much like 50% to 75%, numbers that seems to me overoptimistic a little. All that said, I am not bearish on CYMI over the next two years, but I think it has gone ahead of itself and could be available under $25 pretty soon (looking at current quotes, it is half way there). Zeev