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Non-Tech : PERFUMANIA.COM . . PRFM . . .FOR LONGS ONLY -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Finkel who wrote (1439)	2/1/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: Mark[ox5]	Respond to of 2489

Steve, with 2.2-2.6M in float (1.9M is not accurate I read a few times on the thread) My assumptions are these: about 500-600K shares (im guessing) are tied up by posters on SI, on YAHOO (and they say for every poster there is 7 lurkers) .. so I think I'd be close on that number Then I'd say roughly 200,000 shares short. Then you probably have say 10-20% of the float (100,000-200,000 shares) people who have this as a very long term hold and probably look at it once a month (maybe their broker pushed them into it or something) So that leaves roughtly 1-1.2M shares to trade tommorow. If it does the normal gap up on news (depends when news is released) then retrace, you probably have a rise to new highs (say $15, then a retrace to $12-$13) At that point it depends on word of mouth.. if people on #Daytraders and such threads as TokyoJoe or any number of daytrading threads decide to make a large scale movement into the stock it could ride from that dip at $12-$13 to $19 7/8.. quick.. now big round numbers are where lots of pepole take profits/and others short ($20).. so then you have a downturn again... then you have the midday dip.... until 3PM.. if there is strength after 3:30 more people will load up for the next day gap up to sell into. Those are all guesses... if it breaks through $20 with strength no telling where it stops... if it cannot break $15 then it will probably fall back to $11-$12. If a CEO is chosen to go on CNBC Tues AM, then you have a $30 stock, if some sort of partnership with a big blue chip internet is announced then you have BAMM. The word is a lot of press releases this week... that could mean "2" (i.e. new web site, new CFO) or more.. who knows.. Then again it could gap down... Im just making guesses ;) All hype... all the time, (investment advice is worth what you pay for, in this case free) Mark

To: Steven Finkel who wrote (1439)	2/1/1999 2:28:00 AM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2489

Ok, also to be fair, now have to give you the shorters version: Tommorow PRFM will announce the web site... no one will notice, (in fact the same guy who emailed CNBC has already emailed Reuters news NOT to publish the press release because it would be "collusion") But if somehow, a pigeon carrier does get the message out... just a few hyped longs and newbies will receive it. These pour souls who buy in the 1st 30 minutes... who didnt get our messages all weekend .. well, they could not be saved... we weep for those souls. (some people must perish in the neverending fight to save newbies from those evil longs) However, since we (as shorters) are just in this to make money (and not save souls like we talk about in every 3rd post) that moment of sadness for the newbies quickly passes as we cackle menicingly over our morning coffee. We figure the stock might go up a little on the few pieces of hype...to say .. $12.50.. and then we will reshort it, or if somehow it gets to $14 .. that is where we will definately short it! (and if it hits $20, damn them all then we short again, because we have limitless pockets you know! Not like the silly longs!!) Then Anthony will bring in the really big guns. He will proclaim this stock is "dead as a carcass" (wait something similar was already used Friday afternoon..so perhaps something like "Bye bye teens! Hello single digits!") (Please refer to Shorters Handbook(tm), chapter 7... section entitled "phrases that will really make longs pee their pants in fear") PRFM will immediately drop to $10 just on this fear factor alone, where a lot of the so called "longs" will have stop losses or mental losses.. As the longs bail out at the $10 level, the price will continue to tank in quick succession... all the while we come to your silly silly thread and say "I told you" Now since our plans to email all CNBC producers about not mentioning the stock have succeeded, Joe Kernan.. just as he is about to mention the new PRFM web site, will be block tackled by a producer and chastised "NO! NO! NO!" like a 4 year old toddler. (they won't show you this because CNBC is on 7 second delay, but you will know this happened when Mr. Kernan comes back from a break with his hair mussed, a tear in his eye, and a tooth knocked out) (look for this) Furthermore, all press releases for the rest of the week will be moot. (also, they will adhere to the above mentioned "no CNBC mention rule") Remember, and please repeat this to yourself every night as you watch Friday the 13th Part 7 and skim over your "Shorting for Dummies" book... "This company is a joke, and its all about hype-- the internet adds no value... the internet adds no value.. I believe... I believe" (if you must write this on index cards and paste on forehead) Remember how well this "internet adds no value" worked for your previous shorts on YAHOO, EBAY, & AMZN (see it works! I tell ya!) Back to our stock... by 3:30 the price will be back to $8, rampant hysteria will have broken out on SI and YAHOO, and most likely national peace will have been threatened at least twice... Finally, by Tuesday you will see a gap down to the $3-$4 range... making our predictions correct... and we can bring Anthony onto the thread for the congratulory "I told you so"! (as an added bonus, most likely there will be a story in the San Diego chronicle by Wednesday bemoaning what a joke PRFM is.. and then PRFM.. citing the loss of its key CFO will declare bankruptcy by Thursday morning) So good luck all you silly longs!! Mark