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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Platter who wrote (36425)	2/1/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: Buzzy	Respond to of 95453

I don't get real time Time + Sales, missed the huge block on NBR about an hour ago........ do you know a link to get it .. or could you take a look.... drsvelte... re RDC, Palmer, last time he was on, he was announcing a buyback at 10... at least he puts he own money up.. eventual winner... but aren't they all... I got a feeling the February effect is here for the entire market... profit taking coming

To: Platter who wrote (36425)	2/1/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

Financial Times, Jan.29: PETROLEUM: Big oil companies fear more cuts Big oil emerged battered from its worst quarter in five years, but the bloodletting may not be over yet. Fourth-quarter earnings at the large US oil companies fell by about 45 per cent, making the energy sector the worst performing industry group, according to First Call, the research firm. While analysts are cautiously optimistic that oil prices may improve this year, they acknowledge that if they continue to hover at about $12 per barrel over the next few months, the cost-cutting will continue. "Everyone is taking a conservative look at 1999 because they got so badly burned in 1998," said Holly Gustafson, analyst with BT Alex Brown in Baltimore. She expects oil prices to average $14.50 in 1999. It was the biggest and most diversified of the large US oil companies that fared best in the last quarter. Exxon's size and breadth, both across its business lines and around the globe, made it the industry's top performer and protected it from last year's 40 per cent fall in world oil prices. Analysts say the US company - poised to become the world's largest international oil group with its acquisition of Mobil - is well managed. By constantly cutting costs and eliminating poor-performing properties, it avoided the slew of charges that marred its competitors' results. In addition, strength in international refining and marketing operations, particularly in Europe, offset price-driven weakness in oil and gas exploration and production at Exxon, Chevron and Mobil. Companies such as Atlantic Richfield, Amerada Hess and Texaco, which lack such breadth, specifically in international refining and marketing, were the most vulnerable to lower prices and saw steeper declines in their fourth-quarter earnings. Moreover, some analysts expect no imminent relief. "I am looking for more of the same for at least two to three quarters," said Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Fahnestock & Co in New York. He sees little hope for a short-term revival in oil prices, and weak demand in chemicals is unlikely to pick up before the end of the year. Continued improvement in refining and marketing margins are also unlikely to continue, with the arrival of warmer weather and the summer driving season still months off. The stocks of the large oil companies are trading at 25 times earnings, or at a 50 per cent premium to their normal levels based on p/e ratios, said Mr Gheit. "Investors are hoping that that this is a passing shower, and earnings will rebound." Bruce Lanni, analyst at CIBC Oppenheimer in New York, argues that the current period is an abnormal part of the cycle, where weak oil prices expand the price to earnings multiple. He estimates that the large, integrated oil companies are trading on expected 1999 oil prices of $14-$15 against CIBC's forecast of $17 per barrel. Mr Lanni thinks a gradual improvement in oil prices could create a buying opportunity. "Under the assumption that oil prices improve, which we are fully expecting, then these stocks are selling at a discount to the market, if you look 12 months on."