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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (7619)	2/1/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: chartseer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

SRV followed the leaders sold @17 3/8. But a PnF chart down over 20 boxes that reverses up three boxes is an Earl Blumenthal buy signal. When in Rome......etc Trying my hardest to stop thinking like an investor. Never too old to learn(I hope) Chartseer PS Thanks guys!

To: Susan Saline who wrote (7619)	2/1/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Mutual Fund Switching While I have been waiting for the market to wake up I have been running a series of models on the fund switching. After the initial surprise of the return, I started to a little more detailed calculation as to the profitability. While any fund account more than $50k generally has no 'trading' costs per se, this is, at least for Fidelity and Vanguard, a redemption fee of 1% of the price of the fund regardless of the account size if you hold a fund for less than a year. Therefore, switching between funds just 8 times will reduce your profitability by twice that much (since switching to another fund instead of amoney market incurs the same cost). If you keep your funds in a non-IRA account, then you will also incur trading costs between $20 and $60 a move, although that I consider inconsequential against even a minimum sized account. The bottom line was that the annualized gain for keeping funds in a single fund (or set of funds - I recommend 3 to 4) and moving to money markets is actually moreprofitable than switching back and forth between bull and bear funds. Of course, that is based on only 6-7 months of data, and since the highest producing funds were internet related, a severe correction could make bear/short funds more lucrative. Also, since most interent and bear funds hre relatively new, there isn't a lot of historical (I almost typed hysterical there) data to say that I have optimized my models. I will continueto run data on the Bear Funds for that reason. Having said all that, Vanguard called me today to let me know my Brokerage account with them for trading funds was set up now, so I should be able to give you P/L, cost and performance data against the trading strategy on a periodic basis (probably as I move, or prepare to move the funds). lastshadow