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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ritz who wrote (20924)	2/1/1999 7:11:00 PM
From: WTSherman	Respond to of 25960

This is an excellent thread, even though the occasional talk of $100-200 share prices makes me a little uneasy about hype. At any rate, I believe that what this report and the cc will result in is the classic lowering of expectations. The expected increase in support expenses can only be the result of CYMI's belief that they are on the cusp of a major and rapid upswing in orders. All the rest is CYA stuff, I think management has reached the point that they'd rather talk less and produce more... It is also not impossible that they did not book orders during the last quarter in order to make their forward progress this year look better. I don't believe there is any accounting practice that dictates they book orders if they don't want to.

To: Ritz who wrote (20924)	2/1/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: Nevin S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

So the stock doesn't hit 40 after this conference call. If this is the bottom, and, many on Wall Street seem to think the upward cycle has begun (improving IC ASP's, increase in B2B, favorable forward looking statements), then maybe orders increase as the quarter progresses and some analysts offer up some positive comments then. This is not the final word or pronouncement regarding CYMI's prospects. We will see a surge in orders once backlog is burned off. Remember, Cymer's lasers are not cheap and stepper makers bear the risk of inventory obsolescence. I agree with Zeev on the increase in breakeven revenue. This is a positive sign for a company like Cymer. They have spent the last year and one half building an international service organization to gain the confidence of the end user of their equipment as well as stepper manufacturers. This is an investment in their future that will payoff as competitor's products gain acceptance for similar performance (I will admit this may be hotly contested) but lack manufacturer support. $46 MM is fewer than 90 units/quarter based on an ASP of $500,000.