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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20940)	2/1/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

How concerned are you about the 280 5000 units in the channel, what if the end user wants to upgrade these, who "eats" this cost? They were quite firm that they are finished with inventory write offs, does it means that ASM and the rest will eat these upgrade costs? How many systems do you think might be involved, 25%? Those 280 units are not all 5000s Zeev. Therein lies your confusion. The 5010s that represent over 50% of units shipped over last two quarters make up a good percentage of the current WIP at integrators now. The 5000 portion of that will either be upgraded, or ship as is to companies who would like to complete 0.25 of fabs already running on 5000 based steppers. Korean DRAM makers had 25% of their capacity at 0.25 at the end of '98. They will not build out that capacity with totally advanced tools. DRAM makers can use PSMs with 5000 based steppers to do 0.18 processes. Also, I don't think ASM is where the inventory lies. It is primarily at Nikon and Canon. Who shipped close to zero tools into Korea last year, and much fewer than anticipated to domestic customers.