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To: Rosemary who wrote (93751)	2/1/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176388

<Economy-Australia> Aussies' confidence up to pre Asia crisis levels. Rosemary: Here is a bit of good news from Asia/Pacific region.Ohmigod I do believe things are a beginning to look up a little in that part of the world. ================================== Australian Business Confidence Rises to Pre-Asian Economic Crisis Levels Melbourne, Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business confidence in January rose to pre-Asia crisis levels and businesses reported robust sales and profits for the fifth consecutive month in December, National Australia Bank Ltd. said in its monthly survey. The results give the central bank little incentive to cut interest rates in coming weeks, Australia's largest and most profitable bank said. Business confidence in early January rose 4 points to 13.5 points, to be around the level recorded before Asia's financial crisis erupted in July 1997. The survey's results are consistent with annual growth of at least 5 percent. That's the pace the economy expanded in the 12 months to the third quarter, the bank said. ''The domestic economy has enough momentum (and forward orders) to continue growing strongly for six months,'' said Alan Oster, the National's chief economist. This reinforces perceptions that ''the Reserve Bank is in no rush to cut rates.'' The central bank's policy-setting board is scheduled to hold its first meeting for the year today. After its last meeting in December, the central bank cut the benchmark cash rate by a quarter point to 4.75 percent. Still, National Australia said there is a 60 percent chance of a rate cut in the next six months. Recessions in the economies of Asian trading partners will more than halve Australia's annual growth to 2.25 percent by the second half of this year, Oster said. Capacity Unchanged The survey found business capacity in December was unchanged at 80.5 percent, up from 78.5 percent mid-last year. The bank's business conditions index, which tracks profits, trading conditions and employment, fell 2 points to 5 in December from November, and is up from the September quarter reading of -2. In the business conditions index, trading conditions were unchanged at 16 points, the profits index rose 1 point to 3 points, while the employment index fell 6 points to -4 points. The employment index is calculated by adding together the number of companies that said they took on workers in the month and subtracting those that said they employed fewer people. The other indexes are calculated by adding together the companies saying conditions or profits were good or very good and taking away those that said they were bad or very bad. Neutral answers are not counted.