Peter Eliades comments from Friday night were so boisterous that I have to replay them.....<<<<<Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, January 29, 1999. Well, records are made to be broken, aren't they? That is the old sports expression. Today the Dow Industrials closed up for the 70th month for the past 100 months. In our records spanning this whole century, that has never happened before. For the complete year of 1998, every month closed with the months up per 100 reading at either 68 or 69. 69 is the prior record of this century. Today that record was exceeded.
What else happened today? Well, get out your notebooks. Today the S&P Cash gave another "Killer Wave" signal on the monthly Coppock chart. Before you start groaning about the fact that a similar signal has been give two or three times over the past two year, with little to show on the downside, be aware that such a signal has occurred in the past, within one to three months of the most important tops of this century, 1929, 1968, 1973, and 1987. On the Dow this month, the Coppock Curve looks equally ominous. As the Dow closed at a new all time monthly high, the Coppock was down for the month and closed barely above the lowest Coppock close of the past 41 months.
What else happened today? The S&P Cash closed at a new all time high accompanied by a CI-NCI Ratio below .96. Remember that happened for several days in late December and at that time we told you it had not happened since September 3, 1929. As we said in late December, however, it was not a fine-tuning tool because such historic divergences began in late June of 1929 and continued intermittently until the final top, 74 calendar days later. Our reading of the current analogy is that either the top is here now, or within 11 weeks of December 21, which would put it in early March at the latest.
One suggestion that the top may be here now relates to material in our December 11 newsletter in the "Technical Indicator" section. We discussed the fact that the new all time high on the Dow in late November of last year presented a pattern on both the weekly advance-decline line, and our own CI-NCI Ratio that had been invariably bearish in the past. We finished that pattern study by writing, and we quote, "There is a strong suggestion from these two measurement sticks that the top has either been seen, or will occur no later than January 29, 1999." Today's new all time high on the S&P Cash was accompanied by the third lowest advance-decline reading of the past three months. It was accompanied by a McClellan Oscillator reading of 48. It was accompanied by a ratio adjusted Summation Index reading of 192. It was also accompanied by 95, 52 week lows and it was the fourth consecutive day of expanding 52 week lows. Speaking of 52 week lows, we reported over the past year or so on a study by Jim Miekka, of the Sudbury Bull and Bear Report, noting that if both 52 week highs and 52 week lows are above around 2.6% of the issues traded on that day, it is a negative signal which denotes churning in the market. It is very similar to the "Market Logic High Low Logic Indicator" that most subscribers are acquainted with and which called the July top in very timely fashion. Today such a signal was given with 99, 52 week highs, and 91, 52 week lows. We could go on for another page or so, but you get the point. 1929, top here and now? Could be, but in any event it should be very close now. Stay tuned.
A final note, Remember our S&P Cash projection back in early January of 1282.93? Today's high on the S&P Cash, a new all time high, was 1280.40. Let's see if our number is reached on Monday, plus or minus a couple of points.
Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call each market afternoon after 3:20 p.m. Et and each market evening.
Stock Index Futures traders, you shorted the March S&P at 1275.00, stopped at 1281.80, 6.80 loss. On Monday, let's use our projection on the S&P Cash for a short sale. Sell short the March S&P on any move by the S&P Cash above 1282. Exit that short position if the Cash surpasses 1288.10. If those prices are not available or if the S&P Cash does not reach those numbers, we want you to sell the March S&P short on a move below 1262.00 with a stop at 1272.40.
Bonds are close to giving upside projections to around the 132.00, but those have not been confirmed as yet. There are no new projections on the XAU. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you Monday.>>>>>>
J
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