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Third Generation Mobile Phones Target Data: Tech Focus (Repeat)
Third Generation Mobile Phones Target Data: Tech Focus (Repeat)
(Deletes extraneous word in 9th paragraph.)
Stockholm, Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ten seconds. That's how long it
will take to download a video clip over the new so-called
third-generation mobile phone technology due 2001.
One hour. That's how long it takes with today's second- generation
technology, which primarily transmits voice.
Mobile phone users are set to double to 600 million in 2001, and
they're increasingly demanding the ability to do more than just talk
with their cellular phones.
With the next technology, using the word ''phone'' -- it comes from
the ancient Greek for sound -- to describe the new products from
Nokia Oyj, Motorola Inc. and Ericsson AB will be deceptive. These
products, which may look more like small computer screens, will be
able to send postcards, get real-time news and stock quotes, or
even hold video conferences. ''The average person will get features
on his phone that he can still only dream about,'' said Jaakko
Niemelae, chief analyst at Finland's Mandatum Bank.
The Communicator 9000 made by Helsinki-based Nokia, the
biggest cellular phone company, is one of the most advanced
phones available today. It allows the user to access email, send
some data files in addition to transmitting voice. Still, the phone's
data capacity and speed is limited by the simpler technology of
today's second-generation networks.
Not so Easy
By 2002, about a quarter of traffic on cellular networks will be data,
not voice, up from 2 percent today, said Doug McGregor, a vice
president at Northern Telecom Ltd., North America's No. 2
phone-equipment maker. Within five years, Nortel sees the market
for third-generation networks at $60 billion.
New technology will also reduce or even eliminate today's problem
of phone owners not being able to use their phone in service areas
with different standards or radio frequencies. Already, some sell
dual-band phones which can switch between radio frequencies,
much like switching from FM to AM on a radio dial. And some have
dual-mode phones that function on different standards. ''As long as
there aren't more than two or three standards it won't be a
catastrophe,'' said Jan Ihrfelt, an analyst at Swedbank. ''There will
still be fewer than for the second generation.''
Incompatibility is a problem today with four different
second-generation digital standards, in addition to satellite and
some older analog ones. And the problem is likely to spill over into
the next generation of technology with companies such as Ericsson,
the No. 3 cellular company, and San Diego, California- based
Qualcomm Inc. battling over standards and patents.
While Europe is currently unified by one standard based on Global
System for Mobile communication, the U.S. has three --GSM,
Digital Advanced Mobile Phone Service, or D-AMPS, and IS-95.
Japan has its own standard called Personal Digital Cellular.
That's made it harder for the U.S. to back one single standard for
the new generation of technology, while the European Union and
Japan have already chosen theirs.
Even if all countries could agree on the same standard, not all are
allowing phone service companies to use the same radio
frequency. The new technology has been allotted the same
frequency in all countries except for the U.S., which has already
pledged that radio air space to other communications services.
A Global Decision
There are 10 different proposals for the next generation of cellular
technology put before the International Telecommunication Union,
which has been formed to make global recommendations on
standards. Its decision on the third generation is due in 2000.
Six of the proposals are based on WCDMA radio access, or
Wide-band Code-Division Multiple Access, which Europe and
Japan are taking on. The other main standard bases are
CDMA2000 and an evolution of D-AMPS, based on Time-Division
Multiple Access, or TDMA.
Both WCDMA and CDMA2000 are based on broadband CDMA
technology, but differ on a few issues including chip speed. While
Ericsson and Nokia want more than four Megachips per second,
Qualcomm backs a rate of 3.6864. The Europeans claim a higher
speed improves the quality of transmitted data, while Qualcomm
wants a rate that is compatible with existing narrow- band CDMA
technology.
For the Europeans, that compatibility is less of a concern because
their second generation GSM standard is based on TDMA. They
have to switch to a new standard anyway, as well as form other
applications that will allow bridging between the two.
Some countries aren't waiting for the ITU to make a decision.
Finland, the nation with the highest rate of cellular phone and
Internet users in the world, last month said 15 companies applied
for four operating licenses for the Universal Mobile
Telecommunications System. The U.K. will follow suit this year.
'Free-for-All'
UMTS, which is based on WCDMA, is the system Europe has
chosen to back for the next generation of cellular communication.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. is backing three proposals for varying
standards to the ITU. ''It's a free-for-all,'' said Sam Gronner, a
spokesman at Lucent Technologies Inc., the world's No. 1
phone-equipment maker. ''People don't care what language their
handset talks to the network - they just care about their services.''
Whatever the outcome, most of the new generation phones will be
snapped up first by business professionals who need multimedia or
bulk data communication on the go.
When it eventually becomes affordable for parents to speak to and
see their children with a mobile phone, the companies will be
working on their fourth generation of technology.
By then, the technicians may have moved beyond the dilemma of
transmitting both voice and data with the same mode. They may
even be trying to figure how to send smells across a network, said
an executive at Ericsson.
NYSE/AMEX delayed 20 min. NASDAQ delayed 15 min. |
