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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Loki who wrote (46690)	2/3/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 97611

Loki, Excellent questions. Here come some so-so answers: 1. I am labeled a bear by tech investors. Always am at manic tops. I was labled an insane bull at the bottom, when "tech stocks should never be valued as highly as the S&P" was the mantra. I am neither a bear nor a bull. I am a contrarian. BTW, I have many long positions. It's just that they are low risk with great potential, not high risk with limited potential as most tech stocks are at these levels. For example, last year, I was the only guy I know buying Korea, which turned out to be the world's best performing stock market. O.K., I was also buying Malaysia, but I'd rather not talk about that one. <G> 2. We are in a manic bubble mainly caused by excessive credit and money. The mad printer at the Fed is recklessly betting our future to keep his party going. Instead of taking away the punch bowl when things get excessive, Alan The Enabler has spiked the punch so much that you can't even taste the tropical fruit flavor any more. <G> That being said, he has gone just about as far as he can. He saved the banking system temporarily, but has made their future crash more inevitable and worse by doing so. I am not a market timer. Don't need to be. But, just as a guess, I think the party will come to an end as early as today and as late as this summer. AG simply cannot print money 36 hours a day until our growth of credit rivals Brazil's. The buck and the bond are already suffering, especially US corporate bonds, and they are more important than the stock market. And, like all addicts, investors need geometrically growing credit to support this move up beyond sanity. 3. You have missed something if you think most corporations are flush. Earnings suck at our major corps and are likely to be down this year. Growth in eps has fallen forever. The absence of cash at corporations is going to remove one of the final pegs supporting this market, overpriced buyouts. Yes, mergers will still occur, but look for the stock portion to increase while the cash portion declines. And new cash from mergers is the primary source of cash going into the market, not mutual fund flow or pension money. 4. I don't know all of your investments. In general, most will crash as most are in what went up yesterday and indices, and since most have been financed with borrowing, either directly or indirectly, the pain will be huge. Will everyone lose all their money? Of course not. Will most? For sure, for sure. And still be left holding a huge debt load. 5. Sorry, you are wrong on corporate pc spending this year. They didn't buy much last year and they are going to buy less this year. Money doesn't grow on trees and new boxes don't solve the Y2K problem. They will spend their IT budgets on fixing the crap they already have and severance packages for the IT maroons who got them into the mess. <G> 6. For my opinion on internet stocks: techstocks.com. If you don't want to read all that, too many dumb folks are negative on internut stocks for me right now. I made a ton buying puts on them last summer, but I am waiting to jump back in until everyone buys into their valuation scams the way they have the more established tech crap floggers. BTW, tech stocks are only crappy when they are overpriced. They are wonderful cos. at the bottom when I am long. <G> However, this cycle, as previous tech cycles,will destroy most of the famous tech names and a new list and innovative technologies will be needed for buying the bottom. 7. Yes, the savings rate, or lack thereof, does include the Wall Street gambles. 8. The SI previewer is better than Billy Gates' Technology dictionary, which doesn't even include internet, at least not the 1996 version. <G> MB