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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (6905)	2/2/1999 9:03:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 2/02/99 A new all-time PFE High was set today. Have PFun! BigKNY3 Click here for the traditional video of Mr. Peabody celebrating Da High and Da Peak! marimba.com _________________________________________ Today's PFE Stats: PFE is suffering from high altitude profit-taking at the all-time Peak...Overall, impressive support @ 130 in a down market. Note how close PFE tracked the Dow. PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 9,274, -71.58 (-0.77%) PFE - PFIZER INC ast Price: 132 11/16 , -0.06 (-0.05%) 16:18 High: 134 5/8 at 10:29 All-time PFE High Low: 130 3/8 at 13:19 Bounce @ 130 Open: 133 Previous Close: 132 3/4 on 2/1 All-time PFE High Close Volume: 3,794,500 Volume Drying Up 30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,458,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000 52-Week High: 134 1/4 52-Week Low: 79.62 Beta: 1.02 Yield: 0.60% P/E Ratio: 52.0 EPS: 2.55 _______________________________ The Peabody Model Short-Term PFE Trend: PFE will Reverse and Move Lower -A new pending Peabody Peak of 134.63 (+22.9% from the 1/12/99 Valley) was set today on moderate to heavy volume. Target Peabody Valley: One of the findings of the Peabody Model is that profit-taking almost always occurs near a Peabody Peak. Accordingly, the Model predicts that PFE will reverse and head lower to a Peabody Valley of 118.66 (-10.6%) by 2/15/99. A pending Peabody Valley will be established if PFE breaks a strike price of 125.20 (-5.6%) . Target Peabody Peak: If the model is wrong and PFE heads higher, the pending Peabody Peak could be extended to 136.67 (+3.0%). Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 9,274, the predicted PFE price is 120.48...... Accordingly, PFE is 10.1% overpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends....indicative that a final Peak is near. Da Short-term Gut Feel: PFE keeps going higher....so who's complaining? Not the PFErs...However, PFE history does repeat and PFE has always declined at its all-time highs. Here's the Wayback Machine look at the last two PFE all-time highs: April 21, 1998: PFE jumps to 121.75 on news of Viagra's first week's New Rx total...Within 26 days, PFE declines 14% to 104.75. December 31, 1998: On the last trading day of 1998, PFE reaches its 1998 all-time high of 128.94....Within 15 days, PFE declines 15% to 109.56 Gut-Feel: PFE will make a final attempt to break 135 before the Valley ride begins...particularly in a downer market (-200 Dow points in a day)..Long-term, PFE will have its next Valley supported by continuing Celebrex news and the 3-1 split ...Moreover, the long-awaited 150 level will be reached before the April annual meeting. Suggested PFE Buying Range: $110 to $120 (2/02/99) ________________________________________________ The Peabody Portfolio Stats: # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,500 Average PFE purchase price: $68.29 Annualized return: 97.1% Almost a double! Current return: 94.3% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 200 Average PFE purchase price: $113.63 Annualized return: 283.3% Current return: 16.8% Click here for the last comprehensive Peabody Report (1/31/99). www3.techstocks.com ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 2/02/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5..... ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=1..............+22.9%.....21.............5 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=37...........+28.3%.....64 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 1 ......... -15.0%......12 .............4 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=36 .........-14.4%.....30 .............6

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (6905)	2/3/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

From a Merrill Lynch Report "Celebrex - Strong out of the Box": Merrill Lynch issued the above report on Pfizer on 2/1, and reiterated Pfizer's rating as A1-1-7, Buy and Long term buy. The bolds in the report are mine. Investment highlights: Initial prescription trends for Celebrex (Pfizer/Monsanto) are very encouraging. For the week ended January 22, new prescriptions for Celebrex totaled 9,940. It is important to note that the product was not yet been "officially launched". The official launch meeting for the sales force is slated for late February. Shortly after approval on December 31, Pfizer and Monsanto rolled out a massive sampling program. We therefore expect script trends to pick up dramatically in early March (IMS data captures prescriptions written 2 weeks prior to the data release). Our revenue estimates for the product are $650 million in 1999 and $900 million in 2000. Pfizer will book its share of profits in its Alliance Revenue line as it does for Lipitor and Aricept currently. We are assuming alliance revenue from Celebrex of $77 million and $113 million for 1999 and 2000, respectively. Merck's Vioxx, which is currently under priority review with the FDA, could be approved by May 23 rd. Celebrex is indicated for osteo- and rheumatoid arthritis, while Merck is seeking indication for osteoarthritis and pain for Vioxx. For the full report, go to Merrill Lynch's web site (registration free until end of Feb.): askmerrill.com