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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (3162)	2/2/1999 3:45:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: "For example, is the factor called sentiment only comprised of the ratio of bulls to bears?" No. Re: I reckon there are other elements such as, for example, mutual fund cash levels." Yes. I believe we are currently negative (< 6%) on that indicator. Best wishes, I2

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (3162)	2/3/1999 12:44:00 AM
From: mister topes	Respond to of 15132

He has discussed his stable of sentiment indicators on the radio on several occasions although not all at the same time. They include the Investors Intelligence ratio of bulls to bulls and bears, the ten day put/call ratio and the equity mutual fund cash ratio. He has not discussed how he weights these factors in the sentiment portion of his model. He has said each of his four major disciplines comprise approximately 25% of the model, without providing the specific detailed weighting to the exact amount. He has discussed the proprietary content of his model when asked if he plans to publish it. Of course, if he does that, then he will have surrendered his timing model to the market.

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (3162)	2/4/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Book report: I just read Manias, panics, and crashes: A history of financial crises by Charles P. Kindleberger. It is a modern version of Charles McKay's (much) earlier work--Lord, I love the title, Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. McKay's is more literate. Kindleberger is more pedantic in content--he covers many more different financial crises in a lot of detail. Fortunately, Kindleberger is able to put a nice turn of phrase or two on almost every page. And, he provides some intersting theoretical models for how these manias, panics, and crashes evolve. Kindleberger's book is also quite up to date and includes, for example the 1987 October crash and the down-cycle in the early 1990's. The book was not published, alas, late enough to be able to comment directly on the internet stock bubble. I am, however, much more interested in how the present mania will play out as one can extrapolate from Kindleberger's historiography to the current situation quite easily. Happy reading. Ciao, David Todtman