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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (36540)	2/2/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George- I don't think we are done with the Bull just yet, longer term. But, shorter term I think there is a good chance we will test the Oct lows to complete the Correction which in my view only started last July. It did an A down to 7400, a B back up to marginal new highs into January/Feb to be followed by a C back down as a retest of the A lows. Elliott theory would suggest that the C may well undercut the A low to complete the "flat" pattern. An undercut would really shake the complacency up and put in place a sufficient springboard from which to launch a 60-80% up move in the DJ as the 'last hurrah'.---As to timing of the C, I suspect it will be over by April/May for a symmetrical shape overall (3months down for A, 3months up for B and another 3months down for C). That would take say 9 months overall to retrace an 8 year bull phase between 1990 and 1998. ---I don't think 1929 or even a 2-3 day 1987 is in the cards--partly because I think theBull will still go higher after the next meaningful correction that gets people's attention. And I can't think of a better hook than to go down and take out the Oct low. That would be a 'first' since many years where the DJ undercut the prior year's low. It would not surprise me if 1999 was 'the' year.----My scenario of a C leg down starting from early Jan's DJ high may have to get postponed a bit if the DJ refuses to take out 9194 this week h and instead proceeds to new highs from here. But I can wait (g). One way or another, we are about due for the next 'shakeup' I don't intend to be short or hold puts as that is not my style. Instead, i am holding high cash reserves and only want to buy depressed groups like the osx stocks. Guess I'm an out of fashion value type.