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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 9:03:00 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 99985

Donald, bond news... cnnfn.com

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 99985

Donald, The Bond market is indeed in a triangle and could break down in price and higher in yield. With the Japanese rates rising significantly there is greater competition for Japanese institutions to repatriate capital to Japan and invest in their now higher yielding JGB's. This coupled with the very strong economic numbers here in the US mean that the Fed will not be lowering rates near term. This was not factored into the yield curve particularly the short end of the curve. I also see the headline of an article in TS.Com that another rate cut is not a certainty in Europe. The market was expecting that as well several weeks ago. That would have enabled the Fed to lower rates without affecting the interest-rate differentials between Europe and the US. The Ozzie buck is influenced by commodity prices....Gold is one of the biggest influences on the AUD. I would not look for another leg down in the AUD without a concomitant move down in Gold. My best guess is that Gold could rally in the next several weeks and go back to the 310-316 range. Hence the AUD should stay above .6150 for the next couple of months. All these comments and outlook can be negated by a large macroeconomic development that is currently not widely seen or given as likely. Best Regards, John

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 9:40:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Will the Australian $ fall again? Probably, check out the candlestick chart. When I was there it was $0.75 currently at $0.6389 and has been as low as $0.50. The chart below shows $AUD per $US. bigcharts.com

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 10:12:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Respond to of 99985

<<< Could it be that the U.S.BOND market is maybe not the best safe haven as it was earlier, and that there could be an outflow of funds to other safe havens in the world. >>> Personally I think the witness deposition in the Clinton impeachment trial plus the news that Ken Starr as a judge still has constitutional rights to indict Clinton while he is still in office have made many investors nervous, especially the foreign investors. I think that's the true reason why dollar, U.S. bond, and stocks were all weak during the last few days. The good news, however, is that Lewinsky does not appear to help the prosecution yet according to news tonight. This might spark a rallly tomorrow. How Clinton will handle the potential Starr indictment will impact the market further. Before this week, the market already assumed that Clinton will be safe (nobody wants a government shakeout at this point of time!). So the above news and events have produced some surprise and wall street nervousness. Any other opinions ?

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Daniel Joo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The only time bonds are "safe" is if you buy at face and hold until expiration to lock in yield. With all the hedge funds playing their interest rate games, buying and selling bonds especially bond funds is for the birds - IMO. Interest rates will go untouched IMO. Consumer spending is driving the economy despite turmoil abroad. Greenspan will not risk a sell off in the stock market that will curtail spending thus bringing the economy down. We are in a great environment where the economy is growing strong with low unemployment and low inflation. No need to rock the boat.

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, some ellioticians have called the move into 10/8 on the bonds a wave 3 move, however, I could make a case for it being a wave 5, which is now in the correction process. Using the downtrendline from april and the uptrendline from October (on rates) we seem to be trying to break to higher rates. I have come to trust those failed h&s patterns, frustrated yogi that i yam -g- bb

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/2/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: Copeland	Respond to of 99985

Could it be that the U.S.BOND market is maybe not the best safe haven as it was earlier, and that there could be an outflow of funds to other safe havens in the world. It strongly suggests that the Japanese have increased the pace of their selling of our debt, which began earlier this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they were dumping the money into their own markets or Korea's, considering the weakness in Europe.

To: donald sew who wrote (5248)	2/3/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: George Mc Geary	Respond to of 99985

Donald, nice call on the break, about 225 points if you were gutzy enough to buy your puts yesterday at +60 on the Dow and get out when we were down -150 today.