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Biotech / Medical : Incyte (INCY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sim1 who wrote (828)	2/2/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3202

I would expect financials after the close tomorrow based on their history, but not totally sure on whether they will release before open or after the close. Consistency hasn't been their strong suit on how and when they've released financials. I think they created a lot of nervousness with the analyst and institutional community because they haven't given any guidance on earnings. Last year they gave guidance at H&Q. I think the nervousness has led to some pretty damn heavy dumping, like the million shares that got dumped in the last hour today, tanking the price $4. Just shear stupidity on the dumpers part and a bargain for the buyers. Any reasonable near miss on earnings in IMHO now factored into the price. If the earnings come in at consensus or better, I would expect a fairly decent turnaround. Keep in mind that this is not a technology company that is dependent on customers buying their product today, virtually all of their revenue is based on long term contracts with deep pocket firms, and they have never lost a customer yet. We bought more today for the VDXXX Model and I'm going to put in a limit buy for another 1000 at $20 in just a few minutes. Geez, now that INCY has come down 40% in the last month, it seems like it is just about time for the analysts, whose firms have already dumped the stock, to downgrade it so that it will go lower and they can load up again and upgrade it to drive the price and their profits. Hang in there, this is still one hell of a great long term company. One reason that I don't think that INCY is trying to hide anything negative is that it just isn't in the nature of the management. Along the same lines that they don't tend to hype and trump up the positives. These guys are really low key towards the stock market, and have a very long term perspective. They figure that if they keep growing the business, the stock price will take care of itself. Unfortunately, it seems that there are just too many traders in stocks these days and too few investors, hence the extreme volatility. When you look at the market caps of companies with a consistent 40% growth rate and profitability, INCY isn't exactly expensive. But, I guess genomics just doesn't have the glamour of the internet. I think that is really a very short sighted view though. The internet companies IMO do not have a really big barrier to entry for competition. Their bubble will burst yet. INCY has a huge barrier to entry, but it seems to be forgotten. Their patent portfolio and filings for patents are just incredible. The PTO is so backlogged that they are just getting around to issuing the early stuff still. The filings they have already made will be trickling out for years. INCY doesn't make any publicity about their patents when issued (how many biotechs do that?) except for really important stuff like the first EST patent ever issued (no market reaction to this historic event by the way). The putative competition (Celera) are going to be infringing so heavily on INCY patents in the future that IMO it will ultimately frustrate anyone who depends on Celera. Of course, no one will know of the infringement because the patents are going to be trickled out of the PTO. Keep in mind that INCY has 10,000 full length genes already sequenced, and they are cranking them out daily. Their new headquarters building should be on line soon too, which should increase their efficiency. My advice is Buy, Buy, Buy!!! Rman