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Technology Stocks : UBID - an IPO spinoff of Creative Computers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Liren Chen who wrote (461)	2/3/1999 6:51:00 AM
From: SHGLaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 581

Liren, if you had read the prior posts, you would see that we are all in agreement with you about the differences between uBid and eBay. In fact, one of the complaints of both longs and shorts is that the two stocks have tended (except for yesterday) to track each other despite the fact that their business models are entirely different. Please read these posts before suggesting that others are wrong so that you have an understanding of what is being discussed. Your analysis is somewhat simplistic about both, however. Your view that eBay has the larger user base and hence will be more profitable demonstrates a poor understanding of what eBay does. They are a garage sale, taking a cut from each transaction as their means of revenue. Their revenue stream depends on the sale of huge amounts of cheap and tawdry merchandise, taking pennies from each. As with garage sales today, the quality, variety and value of each transaction is wholly outside their control. Similarly, so is customer satisfaction, which is why they have been plagued with fraud problems. The phenomen only lasts as long as there is a sufficient quantity of marketable merchandise of sufficient value to generate a revenue stream, and a sufficient number of buyers who will risk buying sight unseen the flotsom and jetsom of other people's used throwaways. Just as garage sales had their place for a while, so too does eBay. But whether they can keep this stream going, or the interest of buyers which has severely waned in the garage sale phenomen, is another matter and one which the company cannot control. If the co. can't control its product, customer satisfaction or price point, then is can't control its revenue stream. Co's that have no control over revenue stream are dependent on luck. This, in my view, is not a viable business model over the long term. SHG

To: Liren Chen who wrote (461)	2/9/1999 9:04:00 AM
From: Axxel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 581

You may be safe on the short side for a little while..also true in terms of EBAY and I think you are right about ONSL as well. You have a good handle on it. From my newsletter today, FYI- UBID [UBID-69]. "Acts like crap…good. Keep it up. Buy the break of $50. Yes…$50, this is no misprint." We are getting closer…but no cigar. No interest. FYI- This stock comment may is an excerpt from the Axxel Knutson's VTAR™ Newsletter [Volume Trade Analysis Research ™]. There are important disclaimers and additional information that investors may want to avail themselves of prior to taking any action based upon this comment. The writer will not, usually, update you on changes in opinion. The Axxel Knutson's VTAR™ Newsletter [Volume Trade Analysis Research ™] is published [free] 3/4 times a week and is given to various web sites and to individuals who request it. There are no charges and it is not supported by advertising of any kind. Fees are not accepted for inclusion into the newsletter from any entity including the websites. If you would like the rest of the newsletter or if you would like to be put on the list, simply email me at stockopn@webspan.net; tell me your name [I want to know to whom I'm speaking-you know who I am], email address, the city that you live near and how you heard about it. If you don't like it after you get it, simply send me an email as follows: "Drop Dead." That will get you off the list. My lawyer, who has no personality whatever and is considered by nearly everyone a real jerk, makes me say all this crap.