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Technology Stocks : Gorilla Game -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (355)	2/3/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 387

>>l would be interested in hearing other experiences with gorilla game stocks this year - both the good and the bad.<< Shane, I track a Front Office Gorilla Game in the Motley Fool Gorilla Game folder on AOL. The game began on May 25 last year. It began with four equal positions of Clarify, Remedy, Siebel and Vantive. In its mid-October low it was showing a 40% loss and losing to all the indexes big-time. Since then the game has advanced 135%. As of the close last Friday, the game showed a 40% profit. It was ahead of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 by 25 percentage points and 48 percentage points, respectively. It's been a hugely volatile game to watch, though it's only been 8 months since its inception. --Mike Buckley

To: Shane M who wrote (355)	2/3/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 387

Shane...IMHO, PSFT is not likely to ever be a gorilla. It's unlikely to be able to catch it's bigger competitors. I too owned some PSFT, not one of my smarter moves, especially since I gradually sold at progressively lower prices instead of biting the bullet and exiting quicker. After reading your post, I checked out DCTM. Since they make a product that sits on top of a data base and stores attributes of that database, what is to keep somebody like ORCL from doing the same thing and integrating it? In fact if the market gets big enough for them to be interested I would bet they would do just that. The moat full of sharks (barrier to entry) that Mr. Buffett talks about seems to be lacking here. Is the future market big enough for it to be a gorilla even if successful? SAP is a gorilla but probably will have great difficulty expanding beyond it's core, so growth may be limited.. Probably a buy on further weakness. Most of the smarter investors on SI seem to think that the impending telecom change to packet switching is too big for any one company to completely dominate, and that the market will be shared by LU, CSCO, and probably NT. I own all three, but CSCO is my favorite. Personally, my best candidates for future gorilla status are SEBL and CTXS. Both are risky, but if they can keep their lead another year or so they will be The Standard. Both have potentially large markets and unlike DCTM are big enough to at least have some institutional liquidity. Probably the best way to make money in gorillas is to buy established ones on one of their periodic price corrections. These are the ones institutions sell when they are low on cash for redemptions, but the first they buy back. The only one I'm buying at the moment is EMC (possibly a gorilla). Another 10% correction will bring others into buy range. good investing