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To: Paul Engel who wrote (72756)	2/3/1999 12:30:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, Re: ""The third quarter of 1999 should bring good semiconductor growth -- helped in part by 'protective ordering' in advance of potential year 2000 problems -- followed by a strong fourth quarter of 1999," said Ron Bohn, director for Dataquest's Worldwide Semiconductor Research Operations." This is similar to what I was thinking about Y2K, and prompted me to post to the AMAT thread in response to Brian K. over there about Sun Micro saying their 2H was looking better than 1H. Anyway, what I wrote: To: Brian Kerecz (27950 ) From: Tony Viola Monday, Feb 1 1999 4:47PM ET Reply # of 27990 Brian, I like that too, not because I own any Sunw, bummer, but because they are the first computer, network, the computer is the network or whatever they call themselves today company to come out with good news about the second half. Not that I've seen that much negative about 2H directly from companies (except IBM), compared with the first, but there is a "model" running around that Y2K is driving higher sales in the first half, and that there will be somewhat of a freeze in the second. Model says companies will get their Y2K compliance hardware and software in place by September or something, and then hold their breath into 2000. I have my own half baked theory that, because companies and countries around the world will start preparing for Y2K at all different times, there will be a random effect that will make computer, storage, network hardware, software etc. sales higher for the whole year (and into next). Maybe by the time the whole silly thing settles out in 2001, or something, it'll be time for the next round of upgrades. Merced will be out then, then McKinley. Anyway, good for Sun. Tony