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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: aknahow who wrote (8599)2/3/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: Cacaito  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 17367
 
Three arms then it is not 175 on each group, 350/3 = 116 each arm.

There will not be 15% mortality in the placebo group, forget that.
If there is then Xoma should patent the placebo and forget about Bpi.

Mortality in septic shock is 20% to 60%. Check the Barcelona area,
Spanish study you provided the abstract and I gave the full article
numbers like a month ago.

Expect something like Placebo 35% to 24% vs treatment 15% to 12%.
About 150 patients on each group are necessary. Recruitment must continue.

The many times mentioned low deaths in the placebo group is not based
in reality. Nothing has changed from the phase II time.

More than 3000 patients included in the meta-analysis from Critical
Care Medicine Journal: 35% mortality across the board in about
18 phase III studies. This patients received the best care available.
(USA and Western Europe).



To: aknahow who wrote (8599)2/3/1999 2:20:00 PM
From: Cacaito  Respond to of 17367
 
George, Ligand FDA approval report has good data on:

1. A trial that was halted early: 36% treatment response Vs 7% placebo
in European trial.

2. North American trial was 35% treatment response Vs 16% placebo.
This trial was not halted, despite an excellent response and statistical
significance beyond any argument (<0.0012).

3.Drug costs of treatment and the "collateral costs" advantage. Similar
pricing will decide BPI price.