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Non-Tech : Cendant Corporation (NYSE:CD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Larrabee who wrote (2980)	2/3/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 3627

"Then, are you saying that once Cendant stops buying, the stock price has no support and will head back down?" No, I said it would be interesting to watch. "Won't those others you mentioned, the ones drawn in by false t/a signals and such, lend support along with Cendant itself?" Yes, but as of yesterday, CD only had $250 mil left in their wad. When this is gone, there will be no "along with Cendant itself." "You speculated Cendant's average price to be around $19.50, they certainly won't be anxious to sell." No, I TOLD you EXACTLY (no speculation) that the average buy price IS $19.79 utilizating very remedial mathmatical skills of dividing the money CD SAID yesterday they have spent ($950 mil) by the number of shares they have bought (48 mil). "And how will the upcoming earnings report figure into that? A good report adds support in the long run, yes?" I have already said on the Yahoo board that the EPS report could be ugly even if it is good. First call has 4th qtr 1997 at .24, I think (never adjusted for fraud). We are now expecting .19. Here is a good headline to report these earnings by the press, "Troubled franchiser Cendant Corp. who was rocked last year with accountanting irregularities which caused its' stock to plummet 70%, reported its' earnings sank 20% (.24 vs. .19) in Q4 98. Also let's not forget that all those wonderful options that were repriced in the 4th quarter will now be used in determining "dilluted" EPS. Since they were not in the money before, they were not used. Since they were in the money ($9 13/16) upon issuance, they will be used. Incidentally, I seriously doubt it is coincidence that CD closed under $20 at $19 3/8 on 12/31/98 (the last day of the 4th qtr). If CD had closed at $20 where more options were repriced, it would have further dilluted EPS. Remember, those options ($20s) PLUS the $9 13/16s will be used for Q1 EPS if CD closes at or above $20 on 3/31/99.