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To: Rarebird who wrote (27671)	2/3/1999 2:31:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 116796

Rarebird, one other fact that should be obvious to all the central banks can only sell gold if they have a buyer. There is much news coverage with respect to sellers and very little for buyers. Mike

To: Rarebird who wrote (27671)	2/3/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116796

If domestic inflation increases in the U.S. and the stock market really goes down significantly, as I expect it to this year, then the POG will RISE regardless of what central bankers do IF is still the largest two letter word in the English language. It is rivaled only by the definition of what "IS" is. Inflationary pressures would only occur when the emerging markets recover, and thus the Fed will likely hold pat on interest rates until it sees some signs of that occurring. Inflation is not occurring now since prices have been falling for basic raw materials, thus reducing the price of end item manufactured goods. Inflation is caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods... not a situation we currently face in a world full of overproduction and oil gluts. Inflation is the result of an overheated economy that causes it currency to depreciate against competitive currencies, thus causing a flight to gold (percieved as a global storehouse of value against inflation in the global reserve currencies) Inflation is exacerbated by people buying goods, going into debt, with the mindset that prices will be rising so you must buy now before you pay more later for the same goods. Deflation results from oversaving and underconsumption and a general expectation that prices will be going lower, thus reflecting purchases made now will depreciate by next year. Thus, people hold off buying goods and wait until prices bottom or start going up. Overall, there is still little evidence that overall prices are increasing. We we have that evidence, then gold may prove to be a viable alternative. I still don't believe the XAU will sustain its gains or gold will hit $300/ounce. If the latter occurs, that will be a signal that the dollar is losing ground and being perceived as inflated/devalued. Regards, Ron

To: Rarebird who wrote (27671)	2/3/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

I still see deflation..not inflation..except in necessities of life.. when Japan finally recovers we will start having commodity rises I think, and gold should follow..but the internet is creating another massive wave of deflation..and cutting into the middle man..I am waiting for states to have tax wars to attract internet businesses.. and start lowering sales tax etc to attract more consumers who can shop in other states over the net without having to pay sales tax..I bet we will have a mini trade war among the states :-)