'Psychological Stages
I am not a psychologist, but I am familiar with the stages that people tend to go through when confronted with a traumatic event.
Similarly, in those to whose attention I have brought the Year 2000 Problem, I have observed some similar stages:
Ignorance
Everyone starts here, but not all are equal. Many get over this stage only gradually, particularly those with little familiarity with computers, and those over about 65 years of age. Some people understand the nature of the problem immediately, but fail to appreciate its magnitude. To leave this stage, one must appreciate the nature and potential consequences of the problem.
Denial
This is the stage where one says "Well, that's just too horrible to think about, they won't let it happen" or "I have faith that the computer people will solve this problem" or "Surely since they've known about this all along, they will get it fixed" or "Some smart person will solve this" or even "Bill Gates will solve it".
Another form of denial is to claim that it can't be as bad as the doomsayers say. Or that while everyone else may be hard hit, I now know about it in advance, so it won't catch me off guard (to say this before taking action is denial).
I have only run into a couple people, out of dozens I have discussed Y2K with, who has not gone through a significant period of denial.
"Oh, Shit!"
This is the moment when it all begins to sink in. Many people never reach this stage. They seems constitutionally unable to accept that a disaster of this magnitude is possible. For those who do reach this stage, their world is irreversibly changed, much like the world in the recent movie "Deep Impact". It's coming. It's going to happen.
Acceptance
At some point, one receives enough confirmation of the hypothesis that serious consequences of Y2K are possible to remove the denial. All the denials fall away and one is left with a hollow feeling in the pit of one's stomach. Though I don't live in hurricane country, I imagine this is what it feels like when the TV newscaster says "Hurricane Funnelina is now 150 miles away and headed in our direction."
Despair
I went through this, but I don't know if others do. I despaired not so much about what might happen, but the difficulty I was going to face preparing for it, the disruption that preparation might mean to my family and myself, and especially how I was going to convince my spouse (of less than a year) that we should prepare.
Another source of despair was the difficult question of how much to prepare. A full preparation, a la Gary North, is going to be expensive, but if some of the worst events happened and I didn't prepare for them, I would kick myself the rest of my life.
Resolve
At this point whatever despair arose has mostly gone. In its place is a resolve to be prepared. One then goes looking for information on how to prepare.
In my case, the resolve includes warning others. If you want to do the same you must have a thick skin. Many people are going to laugh at you, tell you it's not a big problem, their brother-in-law programs computers and he says he can fix any program in short order, and so on. Most of these people will come around, but maybe too late to prepare as much as they might wish. Have them read Misconceptions.
Action
Technically, this is not a psychological stage, but I put it here because it is my goal to bring my relatives, friends, and anyone who will listen to this stage. Even if you don't prepare for the worst, any preparation is better than none.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After writing most of this, I discovered the following, which appeared in the Bangkok Post on February 4, 1998 in an article titled 70% of Asian business expected to suffer or fail. Based on it, I added the "Oh, Shit!" stage.
Upwards of 70% of businesses in Asia will either fail outright or experience severe hardship because of the Year 2000 Problem (Y2K), according to Unisys Y2K expert Phillip Dodd, who was in town last week to participate in the Y2K Fair staged by Nectec.
During an interview, Mr Dodd said there would be massive social implications - severe unemployment, social unrest, businesses failing left and right.
"The current Asian currency crisis will look like a holiday in comparison," he said.
He went on to explain that reaction to the Y2K Problem was very much like a person's reaction when someone dies, citing the famous research done by Clinical Oncologist Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, who outlined the stages of grief.
t "At first there's denial," he said, outlining the stages. "Then there's anger, panic, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance."
But he warned that businesses and governments, not only in the region but the world over, did not have the luxury of working through these stages at their leisure. He also pointed out that his experience, working with large multinationals trying to tackle this problem, had shown him that "inertia" often follows the stages of grief, and that this inertia is dangerous business indeed.
The inertia comes about when a company or government realises the extent of the problem, and begins to fix it. They begin to see the enormous costs involved, and how everything must be laid aside to tackle the problem. But, business must go on. The Y2K Problem becomes one of many facing a government or business: there are competitors to worry about, profit margins to maintain, day-to-day worries to entertain. The Y2K Problem may appear so overwhelming that tackling it appears hopeless.
He also discussed the "oh shit!" phase.
"I've sat around in a lot of board meetings at big companies discussing this problem and there comes a point when the CEO says, 'oh shit!' - it begins to sink in, they begin to understand the true dimensions of the problem."
He added, "This is the only problem in all of human history where everyone must work together to fix it. The deadline cannot be changed."
The Y2K Problem also reflects the first time when humans - because of our dependence on technology - have suffered severe consequences for it.
Back To Main Page
Last Revised: 6/2/1998
prepare4y2k.com
|
