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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FMK who wrote (7818)	2/3/1999 4:38:00 PM
From: add	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

We don't know the costs of running the lines. Since Valence has never run a line, my guess is they will be quite inefficient for a while unless they have some real good re-engineers on board. We can't really say what the share price will be until Valence gets a contract and starts producing. Its fruitless to even guess. If Valence does not get a contract this year, they are dead, if they get a decent contract they will make us all rich just based on (expected future) revenues. The key uncertainty is not production or capacity but technical/commercial feasibility. Once we get over that hump, we can start looking at margins.

To: FMK who wrote (7818)	2/3/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Fred, I actually think that the resignation is a positive step in the right direction. The type of management required for a "development stage" company and an actual producer and marketeer of products company is quite different, the recent resignation indicates to me a smooth transition from the former to the latter. It was quite a different story in the palace coup at VLNC. As for capacity, I really have no independent sources (except you assertions) as to Valence' capacity, one of these days, the company will decide it is time to put it in black and white in their 10Q. As for UL:BI, assuming 80% yield, I expect them to have a capacity of 10 Million watt/hr/year by the last quarter of 2000 and possibly earn between $1 to $2 share and going up. The reason I am more positive (right now) on ULBI is that a) their stock is in a bottoming process (and could be there for few more quarter, IMHO), b), they have the cash to execute most of the business plan, c) they are "almost" positive cash flow, d) they already have a part of their "distribution" in place, lead by their existing 9V Li batteries, of which they will be selling more then a million this year (much more). Yet, I am still waiting for establishing a core long term position there as well and only trade it between roughly $5.25 and $7.25, until I see in place the impetus for a "J" curve to start. The impetus will be, of course, a major PO. If I am on board in one of my trades, I'll just add on the breakout, if I am not I'll still buy on a breakout. Zeev