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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MGV who wrote (7842)	2/3/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: FMK	Respond to of 27311

What annual watt hour capacity is indicated for ULBI by your calculations? Do you think it is less than, equal to, or greater than Valence? Do you do any of your own calculations? Here are some calculations for reference. Zeev, I remember 12,500 wh per shift for ULBI's Klockner line mentioned during a ULBI conf call. I get about 13 million wh per year(vs your 10 million/yr) for three shifts based on this number, but it was from small cellphone cells rated 2 or 3 watt hours each. If ULBI were to turn out large batteries, I am sure this figure would increase. I estimate the first three Valence lines should reach a combined total of about 250 million watt hours per year capacity based on the following: Line 1, 4x4 laptop 8/min x 60min/hr x 23 hr/day x 340 days/yr x 80% yield x 35 watt-hr each equals 105 million watt hours. line 2, cellphone, 25/min x 60 x 23 x 340 x .8 x 6.5 wh equals 61 million watt hours. line 3, 6 mm x 4x5 cells, 13/min x 60 x 23 x 340x .8 x 30 wh equals 146 mln watt hours. (based on 240 bi-cells/min at 6 mm each x 3) This total for three different sized batteries comes to about 312 mln watt hours. I have been roughly estimating the capacity of the three lines at about 250 million watt hours per year for 3 shifts. I recently posted my estimate of about 300 mln watt hours capacity for four production lines by year end. A major difference might be the quantity of material per machine cycle. As Paul Klememcic pointed out several months ago, ULBI appeared to make laptop batteries by combining multiple smaller cellphone cells. As I posted earlier, I had been estimating the capacity of Valence's first 3 lines at about 5 times ULBI's line. Your 10 million ULBI watt hours vs my 250 million VLNC watt hours are a factor of 25! These results would indicate that, compared to ULBI, Valence shareholders own 10 times the solid polymer capacity per share! Another possibility is that the 12,500 wh/shift Bruce Jagid mentioned was an "initial" rate that they were running at the time, similar to the "initial" 5 per minute and 3000 per day corrected to 1800 per day to break even that Lev mentioned for Valence's Klockner machine in August. I used 8 per minute in my comparison and I believe the maximum design capacity is 10 per minute. Perhaps Mooter or Paul will share their calculations.