To: Buster O. Hype who wrote (7046 ) 2/4/1999 4:40:00 PM From: RedCrystal Respond to of 10072
Past Words of Wisdom from "Buster O. Hype" *************************************** To: DAY TRADER (14419 ) From: Buster O. Hype Wednesday, Oct 7 1998 5:57PM ET Reply # of 19722 Unlike all shorts, I like YAHOO to go up tomorrow so I can put in mynext shorts. Earnings report are great. But like the US cannot exist in prosperity amidst the global crisis, YAHOO cannot defy gravity while all the rest of the techs are selling off. Shorted YAHOO today when Microsoft went below Aug 31 support. Could YAHOO turn the tide now that Microsoft and Cisco and Lucent are tanking. I don't think so.Yahoo is now an $11Billion company. Could it be bigger than DISNEY or TIME WARNER, or the broadcast channels. At least, impact of TV or print ads can be measured, but as for the net, there's really no way you can measure. So advertisers would advertise only as a supplement to their other ads. BUT THEN, what would advertisers do in a recessionary environment? *********************************************** To: Jorge (11615 ) From: Buster O. Hype Tuesday, Oct 27 1998 8:36PM ET Reply # of 13544 AOL vs. MSFT comparison Important point to remember are the margins in their business. AOL has about 37% gross margins and less than 20% cash flow margins. In contrast Microsoft is about 2X to 3X better in these important fundamental points. That's why the street rewards Microsoft with a price to sales ratio of about 18. AOL's revenue growth is actually decelerating on a quarter to quarter basis and this is normal for a company that's now makes more than a billion dollar annual revenue. I would expect its revenue growth to decline to the 40% level which is still good. But then, there's really no way for them to grow their margins. After all, they are not a monopoly like Microsoft and it costs a lot less for Microsoft to produce software than for AOL to support a user. A reasonable but still generous valuation for AOL is 40X cash flow which implies about 7X sales. It's now a $30 billion company. I'm looking at sales of about $4 billion in the next year. I would say they're fully valued as of now and I would consider initiating a short position if they jump to the $150 level. **********************************************************************