Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ~digs who wrote (2756)	2/4/1999 8:33:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

ALL: How about an "investor / trader ratio indicator"? It is true, nothing makes sense in this speculative bubble within a trend bubble within a market bubble. I think we will see some long needed market consolidation during Feb. That is good. But I also think that more and more "investors" are becoming traders on days when SIEB doubles in a single day. They cannot help it. Human nature. Problem is...they are good investors. . .but lousy traders. And that is why we keep seeing higher highs on these speculation trades. One would think that eventually there would be a saturation point where people are tired of getting stuck at the high. . . but again the migration of investors to traders is staggering, made easier by online trading. This seemed like a great way for investors to "track" their stocks and look at charts and stuff. But the lure and ease of making quick trades for quick money so they have something to brag about at the water cooler. .is irresistable. And each time they put on CNBC to watch the ticker show them their LU or MSFT, they get hit with commercials showing that 30 year old broker wanting to become rich and retire at 40. . .and the investor says, "well I'm 58." Or the E-Trade, where the broker says,"he owed it to me. . .in comissions." Yeah, the advance/decline line and many other indicators hold a different meaning in this bubble bubble bubble. What it says to me is that traders are selecting a small number of stocks to trade each day, and ignoring all the others. And those that want to jump on the back of a SIEB, etc. are selling off stocks that have brought a 4 percent gain over 6 months. . .and throwing it at these bullet train stocks. With online trading making each of us our own brokers, there is a feeling of power and control and a host of other psychological benefits that add to the lure. And once hooked into making your own trades, the smallest gains can turn into a, "honey, look what I did." And THERE is your danger. Not the advance/decline line, but investor/trader line. Rande Is

To: ~digs who wrote (2756)	2/4/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Another thing to think about is the CRB index, and it is very weak, bouncing in the 180 area. Now, if you look at some of the oil/metal companies, they are as cheap now as these b/s internet brokers were at their lows. Not saying they will move like those, but the potential is there, for sure. For my long term stuff I like to buy when no one else will. It is scary and lonely, but IT has never failed. Like BBY 2 years ago, on a split adjusted $5, when everyone thought their inventory control problems would finish them. If JBOH rises at the open, I plan on shorting a pile of it, hopefully at the apex of the rise.