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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (72848)	2/4/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 186894

Mary, RE:<<Since you are Kurlak's most ardent and articulate defender on this thread, could you please tell me what his thought processes were when he upgraded AMD in December?>> First of all, let me preface this my stating that I have defended Kurlak WRT his calls on Intel. I have never maintained that has any remarkable insight or luck or whatever with any of the other stocks in his universe of coverage. That said, in response to your question, he upgraded AMD at the end of November because it was apparent that the sub 1K computers were taking a large amount of market share in 4Q 98, and AMD had a majority market share in this arena. What he missed, of course, was that once this segment grew sufficiently as to be important to the overall microprocessor industry, Intel would respond, hence the large price cuts of the past week. This points out Kurlak's major flaw, which has been oft-repeated on this thread and that I acknowlege--he does not have nearly as good a handle on the competitive dynamics of the industry. The competitive advantage that he does have--sources on the distribution side, primarily--has allowed him in the past to see shifts in demand that others were slow in appreciating (e.g. his last downgrade back in the summer of '97 when everyone else was expected rosy results). This helps him less today than in the past as more supply skips that channel completely, which might be the cause of his being so late in the cycle this time around.