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To: John Hunt who wrote (27727)	2/4/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116836

commodities? seeing a rebound finally coming in SE Asia..higher manufacturing numbers finally? is gold just linked right now to commodities? and nothing to do with fiat money?

To: John Hunt who wrote (27727)	2/4/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116836

"PS - What is moving the Canadian Dollar up so much?" It's due to the British rate cut of 0.50%. Canada's currency is less liquid then the Euro, USD. So it feels the impact of purchase faster then any. But GOLD has dropped significantly today in Canada... lets see sell gold at $.6300 USD for $290, buy back at $0.6692USD at $288. Pocket $30/oz?

To: John Hunt who wrote (27727)	2/4/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116836

O.T. Just got this, Maybe we should talk about "dirty tricks" for the LTCM boyz: <<Discover how you can find out almost any kind of information on the web about anyone! Find out how to: Locate People Check on Social Security numbers Find addresses and phone #s (even non-published) Information on credit files Lookup Criminal records Check birth, death, and adoption records Find records of Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine corps Find info on Alimony payments Create a family tree! Look into an employment history Adventure into the secret past of that shady character You would be astounded at the amount of information that you will find out about yourself! and your loved ones. Try researching yourself and see what kind of info is on the internet about you and your loved ones. And yet there is even more databases that we have Speed traps in the USA Hidden assets Military Records Legal Records Fugitive info Security devices Motor Vehicles Free email accounts Medical & drug info Anonymous phone calls>> Go to zone77.com wonder how well they could play under a "got-cha" handi-cap?

To: John Hunt who wrote (27727)	2/4/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 116836

John - re Henry's posting re Murphy. I posted it because he is IMO one of the most sanguine people around on any thread - entirely practical, and experienced.. I think what he says about CBs makes a lot of sense - they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot after all. I don't know why the $can is moving. dd

To: John Hunt who wrote (27727)	2/4/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 116836

John - Henry again: From: Henry Volquardsen Thursday, Feb 4 1999 11:19AM ET Reply # of 1234 Good Morning Paul, I think that specific disagreement is on wether gold is still a good indicator of currency debasement. As far as to how much gold is under lease I don't know what certain people suspect is out there. I do however have some knowledge as to what the actual numbers are. About 11% of central bank gold reserves have been leased into the market. This represents @ 1 year's supply (production, scrap etc.) As far as the impact of a rush into gold. The vast majority of the gold under lease is producers. Many of these transactions have a direct lien on production and are not therefore subject to margin calls. Therefore a big rise in price would not need to force margin calls, the leases would just be repaid with production. However if the producers made a decision that they felt prices were beginning to rise they could cover their position and this could contribute to an ongoing price rise. I have seen them do this in the past. But the thing to remember is that this would most likely not be forced liquidation but voluntary so would most likely not have the frothy charachter of a classic short squeeze. Regarding hedge funds. There are some hedge funds that get involved in gold, from both sides. And I have heard speculation a number of times that they are involved in a carry trade similar to the yen carry trade. I know that in fact there are some funds doing that. However I think it is much less than the certain people in the market believe. I base this on some empirical evidenc. In the fall, when the hedge funds came under significant pressure in the wake of the LTCM situation, there were some significant dislocations in markets in which hedge funds had positions. The hedge funds were facing withdrawls and many lenders were forcing them to reduce leverage. In response they were forced to cut the size of all their positions, regardless of wether they still liked the position. They also cut their positions in the most liquid markets they could access. The hedge funds had big positions in credit arbitrage and the yen carry trade. As a result we huge price moves in credit spreads and the yen exchange rate. During the same period the gold markets were relatively quiet, there were no huge price swings. If hedge funds had big positions in gold carry trades I would have expected to see some forced liquidation in this market as well. For this reason I suspect that hedge funds have a smaller position in gold than many people imagine. I would take Sakakibara's comments with a grain of salt. He has been beating the drum on that topic for quite a while. A lot of the Japanese political elite got used to the world telling them how great they were during the 70s and 80s. The revelations that their economy is riddled with structural flaws and that they manage their economy like a herd of deer in the headlights has been emotionally trying for them. Reform of international economic institutions is needed and will occur. But I strongly doubt that gold will play a major part. I believe you will see much more of a move to larger currency blocks. As such the dollarization of much of SOuth America and some of Asia is something I believe we will witness in the years ahead. Henry