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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (27736)	2/4/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116810

<< The fact is there are huge savings in IRA's, etc and mutual funds, which are just not included. I think this flaws the analysis.>> Some(large) portion are in the Internet stocks(often bought on margin) with swings of $25 per share in a day could this be viewed as having your savings on deposit in a slot machine?

To: Little Joe who wrote (27736)	2/4/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116810

Will Gold Reverse its Trend? From SCD's Advisory Page (French): Stéphane CEAUX-DUTHEIL-http://www.scdut.com/ Gold has started a rather spectacular reversal since the end of last week, bottoming at 285$ and advancing on its long-term resistance (Tuesday 02/02) which is now at 290$. If it manages to hold above 290$ for several days, then there is a good chance that gold will start climbing for several months. On the first graph you can see that gold is almost on the point of reversing higher at 290$. Note that the 14-day RSI is approaching its falling resistance trend in blue (see pink arrow), which is a very good sign, and threatens to push gold over 290$. In weekly Japanese candlestick charts, a very beautiful reversal configuration may be seen, established in the last three weeks, which has the pretty name of "doji morning star"; this configuration often marks the end of a falling trend and the starting point of a rising trend of several weeks duration. The weekly macd and stochastic indicators (2nd graphic) give a simultaneous buy signal, which should before long see a rupture of 290$. The macd and stochastic monthly indicators themselves remain very positive. In summary, the technical environment of gold has improved for the last few days. A final small consolidation of a few dollars range is not ruled out before gold manages to pass through 290$. Gold remains in phase with its Elliot wave decomposition; as proposed last week, we must have completed a falling wave 2 and carry out a rising wave 3 with objectives ranging between a minimum of 315$ and a maximum of 360$. If I were in the position of the short sellers of the yellow metal, I would start to get a little concerned about the possibility of profits diminishing a little more every day. The day when they will be obliged to cover their position will probably be memorable. To be continued... GOLD IN THE LONGER TERM I draw your attention to the long-term technical environment of the metal. Returning to the graphs, you can see on the weekly graph the appearance of a positive divergence between the chart and the MACD indicator. You will also find a divergence on the monthly graph between the chart and the Stochastic indicator, this one also accompanied by a double buy signal in September on the MACD and the Stochastic (see arrow on second graph). How should that be interpreted? Well, I believe that the gold market is building solid foundations between 280-300/315$. But often as with all foundations, these take some time and take place in a weak range, and hardly provide easy returns from investment in this sector. But I believe that the development of these foundations approaches their end and that a rise of several months or even years can not be excluded. What timing can one hope for? A rise to the extreme part of the zone of support, i.e. 315$, is the first objective. A breakout of the top of this zone would signal the complete inversion of the gold market trend, which would set out on a long term rise with objectives of 350, 370, 400$. It should be understood that technically the market is not in too good shape to reverse its basic declining tendency. One can note the same phenomenon on the whole of the gold mines which have been forming foundations for more than one year. If gold manages to break out of the 315$ level in 1999 then the mines will certainly achieve better results than in 1993 when the mines had gained between 300 and 500%. In fact, they have considerably lowered their cost of extraction and it won't be necessary to reach 350$ for the mines to pass from a situation of negative profitability to a situation of hyper profitability. Thanks to SteveH at USAGOLD Translation by Colin Seymour - caution, may contain errors!

To: Little Joe who wrote (27736)	2/4/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116810

The fact is there are huge savings in IRA's, etc and mutual funds, which are just not included. I think this flaws the analysis. I agree completely, Little Joe. That was the first glaring, but common, error I saw. However, I do find it disturbing that so much money is in the stock market and not in T-Bills or corporate bonds. It will come back to haunt the unwary someday when they discover that the stock market is the ultimate ponzi scheme. Too many people are just throwing all of their 401K money into mutual funds run by young guns hoping to make a nice annual bonus. So on that count, it is difficult to claim equities are really savings. It is a long term lottery system. Boy am I quite the cynic tonight... :0) Regards, Ron