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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Madden who wrote (5421)	2/4/1999 5:26:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, <<I do not understand the logic for a Y2K slowdown. Was the thinking that companies would not buy computer equipment until after the new year because they fear equipment bought in 1999 would fail at the new year?>> You are quite right. All the Y2K scenarios are confusing. In general however, Y2K problems come from a myriad of applications whereby the calender/clock recognizes only 2 digits for the year. This includes many legacy software installations at virtually all levels of corporate, government, and institutional computing. In addition, virtually all PCs running windows 3.1 are not y2k compliant. As such the most common theory is that we are seeing Y2K spending right now, but that it will dry up as the second half approaches because most of the hardware and software spending will have occurred. I have not read anything that gives substantial credence to this theory. In fact, in the following article Dataquest, (which you mention) suggest the spending will heat up in Q3. With regard to Dataquest I might mention that the chief analyst for the DD industry is John Monroe. He is a very saavy guy with years of experience in the trenches as a storage distribution specialist. He replaces the legendary Phil Devlin, who passed away in his sleep last year during a trip to Italy. Phil was perhaps, the nicest guy in the storage biz. Always ready and willing to help clients and non-clients alike. I knew Phil personally and know John as well. DataQuest did well to recruit John to fill the rather large shoes of the diminutive Phil Devlin. John has an article in the newest issue of Insight magazine, published by IDEMA (Intl Disk Equip & materials Assoc) which should be available in .pdf format at IDEMA's web site. idema.org In the meantime, here is perhaps a correlatable preview of DataQuest's thinking. Worldwide Chip Sales to Rise 15% in 1999, Dataquest Says Bloomberg News February 2, 1999, 6:50 a.m. PT Worldwide Chip Sales to Rise 15% in 1999, Dataquest Says San Jose, California, Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to rise 15 percent in 1999 to $154.5 billion after slumping for the past three years, according to market researcher Dataquest Inc. Much of that increase will come in the second half, as people buy new computers to replace the machines they fear may fail because of the so-called Year 2000 bug. ''The third quarter of 1999 should bring good semiconductor growth -- helped in part by 'protective ordering' in advance of potential Year 2000 problems,'' Dataquest analyst Ron Bohn said in a statement. Older computers could crash on Jan. 1 because of a flaw that prevents software from distinguishing between 1900 and 2000. Dataquest, a unit of Gartner Group Inc., also expects that memory-chip prices will rise. That could benefit companies such as Micron Technology Inc., the biggest U.S. memory-chip maker.