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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale J. who wrote (45709)	2/4/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

nytimes.com

To: Dale J. who wrote (45709)	2/4/1999 6:15:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Dale, I get the same reaction on every thread. Since I sell crap that is toppy, the folks who love the trash spew forth with the same predictable knee-jerk reactions every time. Here are some comments you always hear any time you rain on the herd's parade: 1. "Hey, don't you read what the co. says?" Yeah, I do. Most folks who fall in love with stocks don't. But, even those who do don't analyze it sceptically. One fella who invited me to leave the Compaq thread didn't even know about the receivables scam in the report. Oh, yeah, he is an informed investor. <G> 2. "You are just mad because you missed the move." Nonsensical. I am not going to get every move in everything and neither are the writers. That sort of comment is just a misdirect away from discussing the co's dark future. 3. "Where did you get those ridiculous numbers on the receivables, the inventories, or whatever?" Usually from the reports the bulls don't read. See #1. 4. "So, you know more than co. mgt.?" Sometimes, yeah. But most of the time they know more and aren't telling. 5. "Who told you the distribution channel is stuffed?" Uh, the folks in the distribution channel. And IDC, etc. 6. "You were wrong on Presstek for two weeks once three years ago. So you don't know anything." <G> That is actually my favorite type of argument. I guess I am the only one who makes mistakes on stocks now and then. 7. And the less frequent reaction, "let's start a thread without MB." Seriously, there has only been one, "Atmel without MB." Those folks were all bulls in the 40s and 50s on Atmel. I'm sorry they didn't listen to me before it went to 7. <G> So, the Compaq group is just one more bunch that wuvs their stock wif all their hearts and widdle minds and will shut out the truth if it disagrees with their prejudice. <G> Seriously, most of them were not jerks. Just wrong. Some, like Robbie, are just cynical. They buy it because they figure they are smart enough to dump it on one of the really dumb Compaq junkies before it crashes. And maybe he will. He knows the co. is trash. But the stock has not been. Actually, CPQ's 4th quarter was not even mediocre. It was horrible. Or, at least it was horrible for a co. selling at 30 times eps. Their revenues were up due to two factors and two factors only: 1. Channel stuffing, big time. and 2. Huge receivables buildup. They may never be actually paid for some of those "sales." And even then, nearly all the gain in revenues was "service," which is a highly suspect # even at ethical cos. 3 guys who post here and on Micron Only caught some discrepancies between Micron Tech's earnings news release and the 10Q they filed with the SEC. Needless to say, the numbers MU quoted to snow their shareholders and analysts were a bit, let's call it, more puffy, than those they reported to the stern SEC. I don't have the link handy. You can get to it by registering for free at The New York Times web page and looking for "Oh, those pesky little financial details." In the real paper, the guys did it proud by hitting the front page of the Sunday business section. MB