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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (5442)	2/4/1999 6:39:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE =================================== On a longer term basis, I am becoming more bearish. The very strong sell-off of the NAZ today could be an ominous signal. Since the rebound from OCT the NAZ has stayed above the 21 day SMA, but is about to retest it again. The 21 day MA is right around 2400. I believe that a significant sustained break of the 21 DMA would imply futher decline. On the other hand the NAZ is still above the trendline from the OCT lows. Subjectively the NAZ has basicly been the momentum leader, which many have used as one of the main reasons why this market will head up. So on the reverse side, if the momentum leader starts to lose steam that would eliminate one major bullish support for this market to move alot higher. Of course, in this market there is always the chance of a pop to the upside but todays selloff in the NAZ should not be discounted. Per my short-term technicals, here are the position of the major indexes: DOW = MIDRANGE SPX = LOWER MIDRANGE OEX = LOWER MIDRANGE BKX = OVERSOLD RANGE DRG = UPPER MIDDLE RANGE NAZ = OVERSOLD RANGE NDX = OVERSOLD RANGE SOX = LOWER MIDRANGE NEAR OVERSOLD REGION DOT = MIDRANGE XCI = OVERSOLD RANGE In light of the above, it appears that the overall market would get to my CLASS BUY levels(extreme short-term oversold), in 2-4 days if the weakness continues straight down and does not start zig-zagging. From my calculations, the DOW would get to a CLASS BUY status around 8900-9100, which is implying that this specific short-term pullback may not be as deep as some think. Maybe the following downswing cycle could be the one that is much stronger, but for now I am getting clues that this pullback may not be that big. I would like to mention that this pullback actually started Monday and was not negated by yesterdays strong upswing. Per earlier posts I also mentioned that the bottom of this downswing should be near FEB 10 which is close to my calculation of 2-4 more down days. I am also getting some clues that the following upswing that should start later next week may not be that strong and implying a LOWER HIGH. Todays negativity also supports the STAIRSTEP and implies that the break should be to the downside. However I am getting conflicting readings concerning the size of this pullback. My short-term analysis is imply that this pullback should not be that severe, but a break of this STAIRSTEP implys a deep strong pullback. Seeya