To: BigBull who wrote (36803 ) 2/4/1999 6:25:00 PM From: Gary Burton Respond to
Big--sorry, i don't follow bonds---My EW for oil and osx is now as follows---Scenario 1 (new lows) has now jumped ahead of Scenario 2(low is in) because crude took out Monday's print low of 12.11... The daily chart for March crude now looks to me that all we have done off the Low (11.10ish basis March futures) is an ABCDE triangle Wave 4 retracement, which is a typical pattern seen just before the market starts its final journey to a new low in Wave 5. This may match up with the possible ABCDE triangle formation in the OSX, where the E wave was completed yesterday. So, I would be very cautious in here.---An alternate count is that crude is simply about to complete a Wave 2 'double zigzag' to below 11.85 but above the 11.10 Low and then turn around again and embark on the beginning of a strong Wave 3 up (past 13.85). At the moment,however, I'm inclined to think that the Triangle Wave 4 outlined above is the better count.---As for the OSX, watch Monday's print high of 50.91. If the osx refuses to print below this on Fri/Mon and then rallies again and takes out yesterday's high, the bullish count will reassert itself. So, to me, 50.91 must hold or the bearish case i have been describing here (triangle then new low) will gain much more weight. ------As to how far down oil might go if we are indeed going to put in a Wave 5 low, the 9.85 (ny)of the mid-80's is like a magnet to test, I suppose and it would look 'cleaner' on the long term chartfrom an elliott perspective if oil now reprinted that or undercut it slightly. The Jan/99 futures hit 10.35 (March low was 11.10) and I wouldn't be surprised if the new low, if it comes, holds above 9.85 and sets up what EW types consider as a 'failure' (5 waves down but fails by a small amount to take out the low). Bottom line-watch 50.91 on the osx and 11.10 on March crude. btw Noesis has been calling for the ultimate low to be made in Feb i think so this may come to pass. -----I lightened my osx holdings today in light of the above and now hold only FGI, VTS and PDE. I'm inclined to think PDE may want to visit the high 5's, VTS anywhere from 10-11.13 (who the hell knows with this one!) and FGI could do anything short term (but should hold above 10)----If osx prints below 50.91 tomorrow, I will refrain from buying other osx issues at all for the time being. The problem is that I'm leaving for Mexico on next Tues noon for 1 week and a lot can happen in a week! my 2c fwiw
